The United Nations Office at Geneva
Multimedia Newsroom
Arrival of El Niño likely to bring surging record temperatures
The El Niño weather pattern has developed in the Pacific Ocean for the first time in seven years, increasing the likelihood of more heat and new temperature records, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon and one of the major drivers of the Earth’s climate system. Its onset follows a three-year La Niña spell, which is linked to ocean cooling.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia, WMO’s Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, told reporters in Geneva that “the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing El Niño conditions, and this is a result of rapid and substantive change both in the atmosphere and in the ocean”.
Global temperatures are likely to surge as El Niño will add to man-made, greenhouse gas-induced atmosphere warming.
Mr. Moufouma Okia recalled that in a report last month, WMO estimated the likelihood of a temperature increase in excess of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels over one of the next five years. With El Niño, there is a “high probability for the temperature to be one of the warmest on record” in this period of time, he said.
According to WMO’s State of the Global Climate reports, the warmest year currently on record, 2016, was characterized by a “double whammy” of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming from greenhouse gases.
WMO said that the effect of El Niño on global temperatures usually plays out in the year after the conditions develop, so it will likely be most apparent in 2024.
Addressing regional effects of the phenomenon, Mr. Moufouma Okia noted that temperatures are expected to be above average in a band of latitude between the 50th parallel south and the 50th parallel north - the Maritime Continent – which is a term used by meteorologists to describe the region between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, including the archipelagos of Indonesia, Borneo, New Guinea, the Philippine Islands, the Malay Peninsula and the surrounding seas – the Caribbean, central America and the northern part of South America.
WMO highlighted that El Niño events were typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia.
In contrast, El Niño can also cause “severe droughts” over Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central America and northern South America, according to the agency.
Looking ahead, Mr. Moufouma Okia said that there was a 90 per cent chance of El Niño prevailing in the second half of 2023 and that the global forecasting community will be monitoring conditions closely.
According to WMO, El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes typically last nine to 12 months.
STORY: El Niño Update - WMO
TRT: 1’16”
SOURCE: UNTV CH
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH, NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16:9
RELEASE DATE: 4 July 2023
FORMAT: HYBRID PRESS BRIEFING
DATELINE: GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
SHOTLIST
- Exterior wide shot: UN flag alley UN Geneva.
- Cutaway: wide shot, speakers behind podium at the press conference, UN Geneva.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing El Niño conditions, and this is a result of rapid and substantive change both in the atmosphere and in the ocean.”
- Cutaway: close lateral shot, attendees at the press conference, UN Geneva.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “The temperature is likely to be, is expected to be above the average in a warm band of latitude between 50 South and 50 North, that’s the place where you have locations such as the Maritime Continent, the Caribbean, central America, the northern part of South America.”
- Cutaway: medium lateral shot, attendees at the press conference, UN Geneva.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of Regional Climate Prediction Services, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “WMO issued another report where we tried to estimate the likelihood of one of the next five years reaching and even exceeding 1.5 degrees. Basically with El Niño, we have a high probability for this temperature to be one of the warmest on record.”
- Various cutaways of speakers and journalists at the press conference, UN Geneva.
Similar Stories
1
1
1
Edited News | WHO
‘A disease you get when you care for someone’: on the frontlines of the Ebola crisis with WHO
Two weeks into the latest Ebola outbreak, the World Health Organization (WHO) is estimating that there are 906 suspected cases of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), including 223 suspected deaths.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk on 29 May called for more robust measures by both states and tech companies to make online platforms safer for children, insisting on effective regulation, oversight and accountability. The digital world that connects children to learning, community and creativity also expose them to real risks, to their safety, to their privacy, and to their well-being. Online harms to kids’ safety, privacy, and well-being are not innate or inevitable.
See High Commissioner video: https://media.un.org/unifeed/en/asset/d357/d3579089
1
1
1
Edited News | UNRWA , WHO
Gaza: Life-saving medicines blocked as killing continues, disease gains ground
In Gaza, a dire humanitarian situation marked by continuing violence, rodent infestations and the spread of diseases is being made worse by blockages of essential medical supplies, UN agencies warned on Friday.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
UN Human Rights spokesperson Shabia Mantoo, warned against the continuing trend of involuntary returns of Afghan refugees and asylum-seekers from host countries to Afghanistan, in violation of international human rights and refugee law, at the bi-weekly press briefing in Geneva.
1
1
1
Edited News | IFRC , OHCHR
Lebanon's first responders face high risks amid conflict, with 116 killed since March.
1
1
1
Edited News | WHO
DRC Ebola outbreak: hundreds of suspected cases, no vaccine
A fast-spreading Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has health workers rushing to stop transmission while the roll out of any potential vaccine is months away, the UN World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday.
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR
A UN Human Rights Office report released today covers 19 months of large-scale violations of international law including atrocity crimes, from October 2023 to the end of May 2025.
1
1
1
Edited News | OCHA , UNICEF
At least six million people in Somalia are going days without enough food, UN aid teams warned on Friday, highlighting that nearly two million of this number are young children “at high risk of illness or death”.
1
1
1
Edited News | UNICEF , WHO
Children shot, stabbed and pepper-sprayed in occupied West Bank; scores of Gaza amputees denied prosthetics, aid teams warn
Israeli military operations and surging settler attacks in the occupied West Bank are killing and maiming Palestinian children, while in Gaza tens of thousands with life-changing injuries lack access to treatment and rehabilitation, UN agencies warned on Tuesday.
1
1
1
Edited News | WHO
The risk of hantavirus spreading to the general population is “absolutely low”, the UN World Health Organization (WHO) stressed on Friday.
1
1
1
Edited News | UNHCR , IFRC
Death and destruction have continued unabated in Lebanon while communities are still unable to return to their homes despite a ceasefire that began on 17 April, humanitarians said on Tuesday.