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WMO - Press Conference: Global climate predictions for next five years - 05 June 2024
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WMO - Press Conference: Global climate predictions for next five years - 05 June 2024
STORY: Record temperature predictions - WMO
TRT: 2’05”
SOURCE: UNTV CH
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16:9
DATELINE: 5 JUNE 2024 GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
SHOTLIST
1. Exterior medium-wide, UN Geneva flag alley.
2. Wide, WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett holding up latest report.
3. SOUNDBITE (English) – WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett: “In the past seven days, for example, many locations in North Africa, the Middle East, India, Pakistan and Mexico had temperatures of 45 to 50 degrees Celsius and even higher. And this is frankly too hot to handle.”
4. Medium-wide from elevated camera of podium speakers and journalists.
5. SOUNDBITE (English) – WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett: “There is a nearly nine in 10 likelihood that at least one year between 2024 and 2028 will be the hottest on record, even hotter than 2023, which smashed all temperature records.”
6. Wide, journalists and TV video journalists to rear.
7. SOUNDBITE (English) – WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett: “As our planet enters this new record-breaking era, we can expect to see more oppressive heat waves affecting the health of billions of people; more increases in marine heatwaves jeopardizing livelihoods and natural ecosystems along our coasts. More sea level rise threatening coastal populations everywhere, more intense rainfall events, pushing our infrastructure beyond its limits. The future scenarios many of us have feared are here now.”
8. Medium-wide, journalists and TV video journalists with cameras.
9. SOUNDBITE (English) – WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett: “Beyond the predictions and statistics, is the stark reality that we risk trillions of dollars in economic losses, millions of lives upended and destruction of fragile and precious ecosystems and the biodiversity that exists there. What is clear is that the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees C(elsius) is hanging on a thread.”
10. Medium-wide, Press room showing rows of seats, journalists and podium.
11. Medium, journalist typing on laptop.
12. Medium, photographer lining up shot.
World 'too hot to handle' as new temperature records beckon, UN weather watchdog warns
At least one of the years between now and 2028 will very likely set a new temperature record - breaking through the crucial 1.5°C temperature limit – whose dangers are already being felt - the UN weather agency, WMO, said on Wednesday.
Speaking in Geneva, Ms. Barrett noted that there is a “nearly nine in 10 likelihood that at least one year between 2024 and 2028 will be the hottest on record”. When this happens, it will be “the hottest on record, even hotter than 2023, which smashed all temperature records”.
She underscored, however, that temporary breaches do not mean that the 1.5 °C goal set in the Paris Agreement is permanently lost because it refers to long-term warming over decades.
The global average near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline.
There is a 47 per cent likelihood that the global temperature averaged out over the five-year 2024-2028 period will exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era, according to the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Update; this is up from the 32 per cent likelihood featured in last year’s report for the 2023-2027 period.
Beyond the scientific data, the WMO senior official highlighted the impact on human health and survival first and foremost, echoing repeated calls by the UN Secretary-General for climate action:
“As our planet enters this new record-breaking era, we can expect to see more oppressive heat waves affecting the health of billions of people; more increases in marine heatwaves jeopardizing livelihoods and natural ecosystems along our coasts. More sea level rise threatening coastal populations everywhere, more intense rainfall events, pushing our infrastructure beyond its limits. The future scenarios many of us have feared are here now.”
Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to keep long-term global average surface temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C by the end of this century. The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5°C risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather and every fraction of a degree of warming matters.
“Beyond the predictions and statistics, is the stark reality that we risk trillions of dollars in economic losses, millions of lives upended and destruction of fragile and precious ecosystems and the biodiversity that exists there,” Ms. Barrett said. “What is clear is that the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees C(elsius) is hanging on a thread.”
ends
Teleprompter
with apologies for the slight delay in this
welcome to the press conference of the World Meteorological Organisation
and the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
This is under embargoed until the delivery
of the UN Secretary General's statement,
which will start in just under an hour's time in New York and should finish by
about 430
Geneva time.
So today the World Meteorological Organisation we will be presenting
our
report. It's called the Global Annual
Decadal Update.
It gives projections for the next five years.
The lead centre for this report is the UK's Met office
and we are obviously presenting this on World Environment Day.
So I will be on my left. I have Dr
Co Barrett,
who is the new deputy secretary general of the World Meteorological Organisation.
Dr. Barrett is a climate scientist formerly with Noa, the US National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
and she was a former vice chair of the Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change.
On my far left, I have Dr
Wilfred Mua
Oia.
He can
answer any technical questions about the report and
obviously he can give any interviews in French
and then joining us and thank you very much for doing that joining us on Zoom is
Dr
Carlo Buono.
He is the director of the
COPER,
the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service which is implemented by ECM.
Wf and
Dr
Wo will be talking about the latest findings of
the Copernicus looking back over the previous 12 months. So we will be
WMO
is looking ahead.
Dr Ham
will be looking back.
You've received everything under embargo.
The press releases are available in all languages.
If you have any problems, please, Please let me know.
So without further ado, I'll give the floor to Dr Barrett.
Thank you, Claire.
Hello, colleagues. Uh, very happy to be with you today to,
um release this report
as Claire mentioned
the WMO global annual to decato climate update.
And it is really fitting to do this today on
World Environment Day.
Although,
um, it is with some concern
that we at the WMO
once again sound
the red alert on climate
as the UN Secretary General has said
it is indeed
climate crunch time.
Um, the WMO annual global annual to decato report,
which we are releasing today, provides temperature predictions
for the next five years,
and the statistics are startling.
There is a nearly nine in 10 likelihood that at least one year
between 2024 and 2028
will be the hottest on record,
even hotter than 2023
which smashed all temperature records
and witnessed
extreme heat,
droughts, fires, floods and ice and glacier retreat.
There's also a nine in 10 likelihood
that the next five years
will be the warmest five
of on record.
There is a 5050 chance
that the global temperature averaged over the
entire fiveyear period will exceed 1.5 degrees C
above the pre industrial era.
Last year's report,
which spanned the years 2023 to 2027
um, put this chance at less than one third. So we've moved
to about a 5050 chance from one third chance,
and this report makes it clear that we are on a record-breaking warming path.
It's expected to get even worse over the next five years.
There's an 80% likelihood
that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees
above pre
industrial levels for at least one of the next five calendar years.
Back in 2015, the chance was close to zero
and Indeed, as you will hear from Copernicus, climate change service,
the global average temperature for the last 12 months
has already exceeded that level.
I just want to say, though beyond
the predictions and statistics
is the stark reality
that we risk trillions of dollars in economic losses,
millions of lives upended
and destruction of fragile and precious ecosystems
and the biodiversity that exists there.
What is clear
is that the Paris agreement target of 1.5 degrees C is hanging on a thread.
It's not yet dead,
Um, but it's hanging by a thread.
The Paris agreement target refers to
long term temperature increases over decades,
not over a month, not over a year or even over five years.
Temporary breaches do not mean
that the 1.5 goal is permanently lost,
But the trend is alarming and cannot be denied
because we can expect to exceed the 1.5 degrees
sea level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.
What else are we predicting in this report?
Arctic warming over the next five extended winters is predicted to
be more than three times as large as the global average.
Warm sea surface temperatures are expected to contribute
to active North Atlantic tropical cyclone seasons.
Over the next five years,
there have been eight consecutive years of above average activity,
and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
is predicting another such year of above normal,
um activity, with a range of between 17 to 25
total named storms.
As our planet enters this new record-breaking era,
we can expect to see more oppressive heat
waves affecting the health of billions of people.
More,
um, increases in marine heatwaves,
jeopardising livelihoods and natural ecosystems along our coasts.
More sea level rise, threatening coastal populations everywhere,
more intense rainfall events pushing our infrastructure beyond its limits.
The future scenarios many of us have feared
are here now.
In the past seven days, for example, many locations in North Africa,
the Middle East,
India, Pakistan
and Mexico had temperatures
of 45 to 50
°C and even higher,
and this is frankly,
too hot to handle.
The extreme rainfall that led to
destructive destructive floods in southern Brazil
in late April and early May were made twice as likely due to climate change,
according to a new scientific study.
WMO is predic predicting that we will transition
from an El Nino cycle to La Nina later this year.
But any cooling
from La Nina will be temporary,
a mere blip in the upward curve.
We all need to know that we need to reverse this curve
and we need to do it urgently.
This is why WMO is speeding up the roll out of the early warnings for all initiative,
which is WM OS top priority to safe guard people and economies.
Uh, I'm playing a role in helping to coordinate that at the WMO.
Um and we will be presenting our latest updates
next week to our executive council,
uh, where we will be laying in front of them an implementation roadmap.
also next week,
the Executive Council will examine the proposed implementation plan
for our global Greenhouse gas watch.
This is meant to inform mitigation actions,
and WMO members are improving weather and climate
services to support and shift to renewables.
We remain committed
to providing policy, relevant science. We look to decision makers to act on it.
The cost of climate inaction will ultimately be
and already is
far higher than the cost of climate action.
And with that, I'll turn it back.
Thank you. And I can make these comments available to you after this briefing.
Um, Wil Fromm, would you like to add anything to that?
Not specifically. Except to say
the report we are issuing today is a collective effort
of the best centre worldwide going for the America,
Africa, Europe, Asia.
But this report also provides some regional insight
in terms of rainfall, the report is saying, is that there will be some region,
for example, north east Brazil,
where we might expect over the next five years
a less than average temperature
and other regions like the
sale in West Africa, where we can have above average.
But of course, this will change from year to year,
and we need to update our focus, and this focus is being updated once a year.
So next year there will be an updated,
uh, just to clarify you said temperature. I think you meant precipitation
and
so
insight.
There will be some region worldwide where in terms of precipitation,
we might see some strong signal
one of this region being north east Brazil,
where we expect to have lower than average over five years
in other places, like
West Africa The
sale this stripe of West Africa,
where we are expecting to have above average precipitation.
Now,
this is an average. The situation might change from year to year.
And we will have to monitor and update our forecast yearly,
men.
But I will just briefly add
that if you look at the the accuracy of the past forecasts
done under this the auspices of this type of report, we are seeing pretty, um,
a pretty accurate, um, match between what we forecast and what we end up seeing.
Thank you.
We can take additional questions at the end, but now we'll pass to our guest,
Dr Carlo Buen Tempo,
who is joining us
on Zoom.
And as I said, he's director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service Over to you,
Carlo.
Thank you.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Great pleasure to be with you today. Even if only remotely.
can I share my screen or do you want to use a nice slide on on your hand, Claire?
No, I think it's OK for you to share your screen here,
if that's OK with you.
sure,
but I need to be authorised to share my screen please.
Well, while I wait for this to happen, maybe I can start talking about
the key point. Um,
and fundamentally, we are
very keen. Very happy to join today
is, uh, the statement,
uh, and the work that W Mo
is doing with the lead centre
because the report is fundamental and as it was said in the previous intervention,
um is key to use this information
to prepare for what is about to happen.
What I will mention in the next few minutes
is about what has happened. As Claire said in her introduction,
this is coming from the Copernicus Climate Change Service,
which is one of the six thematic services of Copernicus, a
programme supported and sponsored by the
European Commission that has been entrusted.
The climate change service has been entrusted
to the European Centre for Medium Range weather forecast.
And as some of you, uh, know,
we have been producing, uh,
bulletins on the on the climate and the evolution of the climate
for the last few years, and this provide an up to date snapshot on where we are,
uh, in terms of, uh, globally in terms of sea surface temperature,
global, uh, air surface, air temperature
and precipitation.
So, um,
there are several
element that are striking of climate at
this moment in time.
May
May 24 was the warmest May on record globally,
and this is not an isolation.
This not comes in isolation comes up after
a very long streak of record breaking months
that started last June, June 2023.
As you can see in this plot,
this is the anomaly of temperature with respect to the pre industrial level.
Refer to the temperature of the last 50 years of the 19th century
as a function of the month of the year,
and the the lower lines in different colours represent the anomalies of, uh,
different
years, and the decades
are represented in different colours.
The thick red line on top is what has happened over the last few months,
and as you can see,
we are above anything that we have seen before.
It's not the longest streak of record breaking months. This was
in the previous El Nino event of the 1920 1520 16,
but is the longest streak of months above 1.5.
So the first was July 2023 and every single month since up until this past may
we have been above the 1.5 degrees.
And, uh, as the deputy secretary general mentioned in that intervention,
this doesn't mean that the Paris Agreement,
uh, threshold has been exceeded because the Paris agreement requires an average
over over decades. Nevertheless, we have never seen before
a a
period this long above the threshold of 1.5.
And if you if we average out over 12 months, so not this is not a calendar year,
but it's a 12 consecutive months.
Then we see that we are at above 1.6 and this is the highest we have ever been.
So the plot in this case represent the time series of this 12 month funding mean
anomaly with respect to a pre industrial level
and the tendency towards, uh, the warming climate is,
uh, undeniable.
And it is very clear from the mid seventies onwards,
but what we've seen over the last year
is unusual, Even with respect to this
past trend.
If we look at where these, uh uh, excess excessive temperature are located,
we do see some features that
are connected with the
Nino in particular, you see a worm
chop the
Pacific
and this is for surface air temperature.
But you see that the air temperature in the Pacific region
is
close or in some cases, uh, at the very top of what we've seen historically,
so the warmest temperature
ever recorded.
What is important, though to mention is that the contribution
to this record, uh, 12 months wasn't coming only from the Pacific.
There is a very significant contribution coming from land
in the Northern Hemisphere and even a larger contribution
coming from, uh, tropical ocean outside the Pacific and in particular,
the North Atlantic
and the Indian Ocean.
And if if we look at the sea surface temperature, this is even more striking
where the tropical Atlantic is
at a record breaking, uh, level for a vast part of of the basin.
Um, if we look at the sequence and in this case this is the evolution of the CC
temperature for the I three part of the ocean.
Normally we use 60 north to 60 south to indicate the, uh, part of the ocean
that is not not normally
go
nice.
And once more you see the sequence in this in this
case in in temperature rather than in a normal space.
So the
award temperature average temperature of the oceans for previous years in grey.
And over I post to do
you see the 22 23 2015, 16,
which was at that time record breaking and over imposed,
or even farther up into the plot
the last 12 months, starting from the first of June.
So these 12 months have been record breaking for the sea, a sea
surface temperature.
But actually, it is even longer than that. This is the 14th,
uh, consecutive months with the highest
S SDS ever recorded.
And here we highlight,
in colour the difference with the previous warmest period
in terms of SSTS
and the SSTSCFS temperature
that have been detected in this, uh,
Ander in this last, uh, uh, 12 months.
Um, so this was a a highlight of our bulletin.
The bulletin will be published tomorrow.
Uh, the press release has been shared under embargo.
We also have developed an application that sits on the web
or climate polls.
That gives an up to date snapshot on the status of, uh, both air temperatures
and, uh, uh, sea surface. temperature
in both cases,
based on the data generated by Copernicus Climate Change Service and,
in particular,
the the analysis of Copernicus.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. Uh, for those interventions. Um,
And with that,
we'll
go to questions. So there was one in the room.
Could you please just introduce yourself and
say to whom your question is directed? Thank you.
Um, Bianca Hot,
um, correspondent for global TV, Brazil. That's why I asked you to
just repeat the information.
So first one to,,
co,
uh, you
you said you mentioned in your opening remarks
Brazil as well. And a specific new study. Which study was that?
Was it already released?
Uh, I would appreciate if you could, um, elaborate a little bit more.
And, um,
we saw the this problem in in southern Brazil recently.
Um, El Nino is now fading. But
what?
How could be this relief? Something briefly. How How long
can, uh, people in Brazil in south and Brazil just,
I don't know,
brief before a new disaster like this one.
And then I would also ask about the low level of precipitation in northeast Brazil.
Is it how likely that it's
caused by climate change. And
if you
don't know, can
translate for Brazilian people what it could mean. Like to have this
low
precipitation level,
what consequences it could bring. Thanks a lot.
Just start.
So just on the very first bit of your question,
and then I'll hand over to my colleagues.
There was a study released, I think,
yesterday or the day before by World Weather attribution. So it's not a WMO
report,
but it is international scientists who are well known to the W
community.
I can send you the link to that report after this.
But basically their findings said that
climate change made the flooding in Brazil.
I think it was twice as likely El Nino played a role, but
there was a very heavy climate change footprint.
But I'll send you the link to it afterwards. So
not a WMO
report, but with very respected international scientists.
And I'll
hand over to the
yeah, with
respect to some of your other questions.
you know, even with the LA Nina phase,
um, we're still gonna see warm temperatures over the course of this coming year.
According to the report that we released today,
there may be a fewer. Very intense. Um, areas of the globe.
But there is widespread warmth. Predict, uh, predicted across the globe.
Um, so But of course,
um, your second question about
the attribution to climate change.
You know, if we were only dealing with the,
um, kind of inter annual cycle of El Nino, La Nina, some of the other oscillations,
you would see more of a horizontal,
uh, change in temperature over time. But as you've seen from
the graphs that were shared by Copernicus, we are on a significant upward trend.
And even the trend across the the last year is significantly higher in the past. So
I think it's very clear that we're seeing a climate change signal there.
Well, uh, Wilfred, did you wanna talk about that piece?
Yeah. Thank you very much for your question.
Have you done?
Thank you. So regarding your question
with respect to La Nina and the relief, I think the one thing we normally do within W
is to make sure we work in sync with the national
services. The
member,
because one issue with the for
we are providing,
they provide a kind of planetary scale view.
But all the detail. The granularity comes from the National Med
service.
So we are supplying information to the country and for the
country to go down to the level of the society,
the town and so forth,
even if we were to move. And that was clearly explained by the Secretary General,
from El Nino to La Nina.
In the La Nina world, there are regions which are prone to some strong signal.
For example, the Amazonia is a place where we know there will be lots of rain.
So again,
it's for us to provide the information in time and for members to act. Open it.
Oh,
are there? Yes, in the centre.
Thank you for taking my question, Claire.
I'm journalist from the CMG China Media Group.
I According to the report,
I noticed that it is said that the short term warning doesn't
equate to a permanent breach of the, uh, target of the Paris agreement.
Uh,
so,
uh, pa
parents agreement go.
So could you please,
could you please to explain to that What can we do for achieving that target?
That be? Thank you, Mike. Thank you very much.
Um, I'll take a step at answering that question,
and then it may be that Carlo wants to come in.
But if I understood your question correctly, you're you're asking about
this Pa Paris agreement target of 1.5
and how we have both said that,
you know, um, surpassing 1.5 for a month or a year,
or even for five years isn't equivalent to
kind of missing the parrot agreement. Paris agreement target.
Uh, climate scientists actually estimate,
um, temperature across many decades. 2020 years.
And so
at this stage, we can't say, according to that parameter that we have passed
1.5 degrees. Now, I think the end of your question was, what can we do?
Well, I mean, we are clearly on a path where we need to be
changing that curve. Uh, instead of an upward trend of temperature, we've got to,
um, engage in the climate mitigation, um,
activities that have been clearly identified by scientists and policymakers
to reduce our reliance on fossil fuel,
embrace, uh, renewable energy and other carbon
net zero or even net negative, um, activities.
Uh, and then, unfortunately, we are at a point
where we are very reliant on adapting,
adapting to a warmer world and all of the,
um, impacts that are associated with that
increases in, uh,
extreme hazardous weather and climate impacts.
So, um, it's kind of a multi
pronged approach that we need to be engaging in
to eventually stop this problem through mitigation, but also in the meantime,
adapt to the changes that we are facing now and
will face with increasing fre frequency in the future.
And if you follow the UN Secretary General's statement in 30 minutes,
he obviously does have some
A
roadmap for action. Future ideas.
Carlo, would you like to say anything in addition?
Well, I think the key points have been have been mentioned already.
roughly speaking, we are of the order of 10 years away,
um, to the moment where
the 1.5
will be reached in the terms of the Paris agreement. So this has not happened.
Now, we don't know exactly when it will happen, but the sort of time frame is not,
uh, several decades or
or uh for centuries.
We are talking about a time horizon of the order
of 10 years on the carbon rate and and the
in the paper coming out today on the climate
indicators II I It is estimated that remaining carbon budget
to give us a 50% chance of reaching 1.5 is shrinking. And
we have basically a few years at the current rate of the emission
a few
year year to really ask. So
to answer your question, if our goal
is to maintain temperature in the long term below
1.5 then we need to act incredibly rapidly.
Uh, and we team this the limit set by the carbon budget
available.
Are there any more questions in the room? Yes.
Thank you, Officer.
I'm
Y from Xinghua
News Agency.
Uh, my question is
to Mr Barrett.
You mentioned that back to 2015.
The chance of temperature exceeding 1.5 was close to zero.
Could you please clarify that,
the chance was to Was the single year 2015 or the five years since 2015? Thank you.
Probably answer that because we received a question the same question.
So back in 2015, the chance of one year. So 2015 to 2019
being more than 1.5 degrees C was close to zero.
So is that.
And I think you can see that in the in the chart that Copernicus shared, right?
You can see how all those years below
were far from 1.5. And and in this last 12 Contin
contiguous months, we've extremely high in comparison
back.
Thank you very much.
In 2015,
the Paris Agreement, the world signed this agreement. Can you tell us, please?
What happened exactly from 2015 and today?
How was the implementation of this agreement
in the world and especially in the developed country in Europe, the United States,
maybe China and others
and
francais.
thank you for your question.
Uh, we are a scientific organisation,
but I,
I am living in the climate world so I
can answer a little bit your question about Paris,
the the goals and what has happened since,
So, uh, the Paris agreement in 2015 was,
uh, a major milestone, because for the first time, all countries set
their climate action targets.
Um, they were self determined,
but they were registered with the with the framework convention.
Um, we knew at the time that those, um, targets
were not enough to actually
solve the problem.
So what's happened in the intervening years and in fact, culminated last year
was a global stocktake
of where we are
and where we need to go.
And so last year, that global stocktake, um, concluded. And in fact,
the
the conclusions from the Dubai cop
um
um, create the conditions for more ambition.
We we've learned that we're actually not on track. Things have improved.
I mean, if you look at,
the uptake of renewable energy across the globe
and actually the costs of renewable energy,
we're seeing real progress.
So we are flattening the curve a little bit on emissions.
But there is a far way to go.
And so now we're in a process where
countries are re evaluating those targets they set
in 2015,
and we'll be kind of resubmitting,
uh, their country driven targets
in the near term.
The second question W. Do you want to answer it? Or if not, I'll translate. I
think it's probably better, actually for
CO Barrett to.
So from what I understood, you were asking
about adaptation financing, Is that right?
Yes. So
if climate adaptation financing is enough,
are we doing enough to support developing, developing countries.
Is that it?
The
white
and
I
was
I
should pay
to
form
to
have
that.
So why should developed countries pay to help developing countries? Ok,
Ok, um,
again, with my limited understanding from a scientific perspective,
it's it's what I understand of the approach to climate financing
is that, um
in the early years,
almost all of that financing was going towards mitigation actions again
going towards solving that problem.
Uh, but,
um, in recent years, there has
been
stronger requests from developing countries
that they also need adaptation financing
in order to address the impacts that
are increasing and that they're already feeling.
So, um,
there, uh, have been
There's been movement in the negotiations to have a
stronger recognition of the need for adaptation financing,
and that is, in fact,
increasing. Um,
so I guess that would be the answer to the first part of your question.
I think if you look at the contributions to climate financing worldwide,
you'll see that there is a recognition among the more advanced economies.
The need to be investing
in, um, the work that is undertaken in developing countries and in particular
in the least developed countries and small island developing states.
So, um,
there are a number of funds that have been established both within the UN F triple C,
but also
in
in multilateral banks and enhanced bilateral investment
that are targeted increasingly towards,
well,
developing countries writ large, but also towards
a larger percentage of adaptation funding
Have, um uh Kathrine fianca
bong.
Could you just introduce yourself and say who your question is is addressed to?
So Catherine is on the platform?
Yes.
Good afternoon to all of you. Thank you for coming. Katrin
Fion, Kom
conga, Frans van kr
and African media.
my question is regarding what the experts said about the fact that we already
know that certain regions will be more affected than others by drought or floods.
So I'd like to know what kind of
advice and what kind of action.
Uh, would you encourage, um, in preparedness in the global disaster preparedness
and also the SG of WMO said that you had, um,
the organisation and the world had to organise to have more
alert hubs
in order for countries to react quickly and to prevent also,
um, death, uh, people. And also, um, if you have anything to say about the fact that
many countries are already affected.
Uh, by, for instance, the rays of the sea level, um, in different regions.
It's not new for certain parts of the world
Already been affected by climate change for the last seven or 10 years.
Thank you.
Thank you for your question.
yeah, it's true that, um
our predictions for,
um the impacts that we expect to see across the globe are improving.
Certainly our predictions for temperature
are as I've said previously, um, consistently on track,
uh, precipitation is sometimes a little bit more difficult.
Um, but also in those cases,
we are starting to be able to discern
clear patterns that we're seeing in specific regions.
as we
continue in this kind of climate change regime,
but pre and but we still honestly have some gaps in
observations that E enable us to provide the level of prediction
that we really need to support.
Um, developing countries.
And that's why we have engaged in this early warning for all initiative
because we know that we need to address
a suite of actions in especially developing countries
to enable them to have the advanced information
to be able to prepare
for, um, extreme events
and
the type of actions that we need to engage in to provide
consistent and effective early warning
span from
understanding the kinds of risks that are faced by a particular country,
filling the gaps in terms of observations and forecasts.
Importantly,
making sure that we have ways to get
these forecasts and warnings out to the citizens,
you know, through mobile phones, through warning systems in countries,
and then
making sure that we have the financing in place, the governance in place,
the ability to react to the kinds of changes that we're seeing in country.
So that's,
um, kind of disaster response and also building resilience over time
to the types of impacts that we see.
And it really is through that
entire value chain.
That early warning ends up,
um, being effective.
Did that answer all your question?
Uh, thank you. Uh, Clara, for for giving me the floor back.
Uh, I I'd like to come back and the, uh What?
Um uh you just said about the gaps in prediction.
Does it mean that there's a lack of data?
Uh, that means that the country.
Some countries are unable to share
observations because they're not equipped properly
to transfer data to the headquarters
and that it can be shared among the countries.
And, um also, do you have a process,
um, that countries are supposed to follow because you just mentioned
that, um, if there you have data and you have your predictions, you should be able.
I mean, the country should be able
to, um, inform
population. So is there an official plan process that countries should
follow? And did you participate in the
last meeting of artificial intelligence for good forum
with it
using artificial intelligence in order to
fill gaps and inform populations through,
for instance, mobile phones?
Thank you.
Help me to, um, remember the three part question here, I'll answer the easy one. Yes.
I participated in a part of the, uh um a I for good, um,
summit that happened here in town last last week.
Um, and in particular, I was speaking at a session that was
looking at the use of a i for early warning.
And there are some very interesting examples of the way that,
we are doing some work in that space. with artificial intelligence,
to evaluate, um, kind of disasters
and to help determine, uh,
the ways that we could foresee those disasters and effectively respond.
So that was one piece,
you asked the question about whether I was saying that
there are observational gaps in countries?
Absolutely.
That is a core piece of what's missing
in terms of country's ability to provide the,
um, observations and data that they need
to be able to foresee what's coming their way.
and we are very focused on that in the early warning for all
initiative.
In fact, we've established a sustained observation financing facility
that is designed very much to help plug these gaps in in developing countries.
Because it's it's important.
You know, in some of these countries, we do have some basic, um,
capabilities for observing, but but often we did.
They're not sufficient
to be able to give us the predictability
that we need in order to
say what's coming coming your way.
Um, so we both need to expand the number
of, um, observational sites
and also,
the G.
The global science community needs those observations
to feed up into our our collective understanding
so that we can do a better job of predicting across the globe.
So, yes, we, um I did say
that there are gaps that need to be addressed.
And there was a third piece to the question
Kathrine, could you just tell us the the third part of your question?
Because it was quite long, You know, I'm afraid
that I forgot myself,
but
no, I mean, it was it was more. I understand what you said.
I think it was 12 questions in one about filling the gaps,
meaning that there was a lack of data observation, but also the equipment.
Uh, so maybe, um, that is the one. The aspect that, uh, I I wanted to to know
to better know.
And And now that I have the floor back also,
we often speak about observation data in developing countries.
But what about developed countries we see in Europe or in other countries?
Uh,
so many people affected deaths. Uh,
even regions like in France, where authorities have decided to
evacuate, uh, an old, uh, city village and decided to in fact, forbid people to ever
go back there.
Uh, they will relocate the inhabitants because the place is, um,
has too many floods.
Got too many floods the last couple of years.
So what about political decisions? Also in in in the
western countries that are supposedly
more aware
and able to inform populations?
Thank you so much,
Carlo. Do you want to?
Given Copernicus's experience with data sharing in Europe,
do you feel comfortable answering answering this?
Yes,
there can. Can I come in just briefly on observations?
Don't hear anymore. For some reason,
no question what's happening?
So the, um, question was on
OK. It was also
on data data exchange
in Europe, and there was the example cited of authorities
evacuating as
an area in France was prone to flooding. And maybe you could exchange.
Explain how Copernicus, climate change service, your free free data
policies and how you
inform government's preparedness in Europe. Because that really is
probably a very good example for the rest of the world.
Yeah, thank you.
I think there was a technical glitch, so I may have missed part,
part of of of your question.
So I'll start with, um, the point I was keen to make.
And and I'll touch on what I understand. Your question.
If I'm on off track, please correct me and and and I'll come back.
So the point I was keen to mention is
in relation to observation is that observation are crucial.
E even more so now that we use, uh, a I
and machine
learning. But not only the near real time observation about what's happening.
They are also very important the old observations
about what has happened in the past.
And if you look at the record, uh, outside Europe and North America,
well,
if you go in the pre satellite era in the
19 sixties or 19 forties or beginning of the century,
the coverage is very sparse. So something we are as a Copernic is we are doing
very much jointly with WMO and with the
portal is to support nation in their
rescuing of all data.
And this data is very,
very valuable to understand how the climate
works and this understanding will allow us
to make more precise predictions which can
help prepare for the upcoming extreme event.
Now, on the second part, which is, uh uh,
it requires some level of interpretation because of the technical glitch.
But I,
I understand you were asking me Claire to comment about the relationship between
Copernicus and the member states, the National Met services here.
So this is a fundamental element of what we are doing. Not only Cooper
this programme, but in general at
the European Centre for Medium Range weather forecast,
which is an international institution
and who, uh, basically members are national
services. So we work for the national
services and we want to equip them with the
best available data and information that can provide,
uh, input in in the early warning and provide input into,
uh, their decision support system in their operation and in their own product.
So we work hand in hand with them, um, and we are
supporting their activities. That's our primary goal. Really?
And in that sense, what Copernicus does
in in that space is to provide, As Claire was saying,
free and open data for anyone to use no restrictions, uh, about the climate of today,
the climate of the past and the upcoming condition for the next
few months, all the way down to the end of the century.
Yes.
And maybe I'll just kind of pick up on the part of your question that, um,
was kind of focused on,
maybe flooding that takes place,
that it just doesn't allow people to ever go back
there or some extreme hazard where it's impossible to.
Then
reh habitate
a place.
Um, and I think you used a European country, but I think
the important point here is that
these types of extremes are being felt across the globe.
And, yes, there are some countries that have,
adequate early warning
observations.
Um, a long history of being prepared and still
with the changes that we're seeing with climate change,
they can't keep up.
We're starting to see novel, um, storms.
We're starting to see floods coming down from the sky
that surprise cities even in the most developed countries,
and cause fatalities. Quite frankly, I've seen them in my own country.
So
I mean, it's just to put a fine point on it
that this is a global problem where we're seeing global impacts,
and, uh, it no one is really spared from the challenges.
Thank you.
And I think we should wrap up, actually,
because the UN Secretary General is due to speak
very, very shortly. And we obviously don't want
to take up
his space or to stop you from watching his speech.
So, as I said,
this is embargoed until after the UN Secretary general's speech was finished.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Please tune in to the UN Secretary General's important statement.
You should have all got the links, the links to it.
If there are any follow up interview requests, we can accommodate them now.
And thank you very much indeed for your time and thank you to Carlo for joining us
and thank you to CO and
wran as well, Thank you very much.