The United Nations Office at Geneva
Multimedia Newsroom
UNCTAD Press Conference: Developments in the Economy of the OPT Report - 12 September 2024
/
44:23
/
MP4
/
2.6 GB
Press Conferences , Edited News | UNCTAD
UNCTAD Press Conference: Developments in the Economy of the OPT Report - 12 September 2024
Story: UNCTAD Palestine Report – 12 September 2024
TRT: 03’36”
SOURCE: UNTV CH
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16:9
DATELINE: 12 September 2024 - GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
SHOTLIST
- Wide shot of the press conference room with speakers on the podium.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Pedro Manuel Moreno, Deputy Secretary-General, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD): “The Palestinian economy is in freefall. The report calls for the international community to halt this economic freefall, address the humanitarian crisis and lay the groundwork for lasting peace and development. This includes considering a comprehensive recovery plan for the occupied Palestinian territory, increased international aid and support, release of withheld revenues and lifting the blockade on Gaza.”
- Medium shot: Press room with journalists and control room at the back.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Mutasim Elagraa, Coordinator, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Assistance to the Palestinian People: “The Palestinian agricultural sector in the last quarter of 2023 shrunk by 11 per cent, and that is especially worrisome because the agricultural sector provides a decent chunk of employment, and it produces income. It produces exports. It contributes to food security, and in Palestine it plays another special role. The agricultural sector is a shock absorber - whenever there's a crisis and Palestinian workers lose their jobs, whether in the domestic economy or with their work in Israel and settlements, they go back to agriculture temporarily, and there they can produce some income.”
- Close shot: Journalist in the Press room.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Rami Alazzeh, Economist, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD): “Just to give you a comparison: in the peak of the second Intifada, in 2000 to 2002, the Palestinian economy lost 33 per cent of its value. And now we're seeing this drop over one year. Basically, it's the highest unemployment recorded for the West Bank. Even in the peak of the second Intifada, the highest we've seen is 28 per cent. In the first quarter of 2024, unemployment reached 35 per cent. So we're talking about almost triple what it was prior to October 2023.”
- Medium shot: Speakers at the podium in the Press room.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Mutasim Elagraa, Coordinator, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Assistance to the Palestinian People: “The problem is general. It's in Gaza, in the West Bank and in East Jerusalem. It's not just Gaza. Although in Gaza, it is really extreme. It will take decades and high tens of billions of dollars, if not even more, to rebuild Gaza and put it back like where it was before October 2023. So if we want to return Gaza to pre-October 2023, we need tens of billions of dollars, or even more, and decades.”
- Medium shot: Speakers at the podium.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Rami Alazzeh, Economist, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD): “What's left in Gaza is basically the humanitarian support. There's not much left in Gaza and when you say two thirds of the jobs were lost, already Gaza's unemployment before October 2023 was 45 per cent. So what's left in Gaza now is just the humanitarian aid workers, local UN staff, doctors, nurses. That's it. The economy basically collapsed months ago. So this is what's left in Gaza functioning now.”
- Medium shot: Journalist in the press room.
Palestinian economy “in freefall” amid ongoing Gaza conflict - UNCTAD
Gaza’s economy has “collapsed months ago” while in the West Bank, violence and trade restrictions are fueling a massive surge in poverty and unemployment, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned on Thursday.
The war-torn enclave’s economy has shrunk to less than a sixth of its 2022 level, while up to 96 per cent of its agricultural assets and 82 per cent of all its businesses have been destroyed, according to UNCTAD’s latest report.
“The Palestinian economy is in freefall,” UNCTAD deputy chief Pedro Manuel Moreno told journalists in Geneva. “The report calls for the international community to halt this economic freefall, address the humanitarian crisis and lay the groundwork for lasting peace and development.”
Mr. Moreno insisted on the need for a “comprehensive recovery plan” for the occupied Palestinian territory, as well as increased international aid, the release of withheld Palestinian revenues withheld by Israel and an end to the blockade on Gaza.
According to UNCTAD, in addition to “unprecedented loss of life” and displacement, the combined impact of Israel’s military operation in Gaza that followed the attacks of 7 October 2023 by Palestinian armed groups in southern Israel, and the conflict’s repercussions in the West Bank “delivered an unparalleled shock that overwhelmed the Palestinian economy across the occupied Territory”.
The Palestinian agricultural sector shrunk by 11 per cent in the last quarter of 2023, which is “especially worrisome” given the sector’s importance in terms of jobs, exports and food security, said Mutasim Elagraa, coordinator of UNCTAD’s programme of assistance to the Palestinian people.
“The agricultural sector is a shock absorber - whenever there's a crisis and Palestinian workers lose their jobs, whether in the domestic economy or with their work in Israel and settlements, they go back to agriculture temporarily, and there they can produce some income,” he explained.
UNCTAD stressed that in the West Bank, settlement expansion and increased settler violence, land confiscations and demolition of Palestinian structures are driving population displacement and record unemployment, with over 300,000 jobs lost since the beginning of the conflict in Gaza.
“It's the highest unemployment recorded for the West Bank,” said UNCTAD economist Rami Alazzeh “Even in the peak of the second Intifada, the highest we've seen is 28 per cent. In the first quarter of 2024, unemployment reached 35 per cent” – almost triple what it was prior to October 2023.
In Gaza, the situation is even more “extreme” UNCTAD said, with two thirds of pre-war jobs lost by January 2024 and the entire population of the enclave dependent on international aid.
“What's left in Gaza is basically the humanitarian support… the humanitarian aid workers, local UN staff, doctors, nurses, that's it,” Mr. Alazzeh said. “The economy basically collapsed months ago.”
Asked about prospects for an economic recovery once the guns are silenced, UNCTAD’s Mr. Elagraa warned that “if we want to return Gaza to pre-October 2023, we need tens of billions of dollars, or even more, and decades.”
-Ends-
Teleprompter
Good afternoon.
Welcome to the launch of the 2024
Report on the developments in the
economy of the Palestinian occupied Palestinian territory.
And thank you for joining us.
We have with us
the Deputy Secretary General of UN Trade and Development
Mr
Pedro Manuel
Moreno, who will present
an overview of the findings of this report
and Mr Mutasim
Melara,
co ordinator of the assistance to the Palestinian People Unit in
who will present the technical details of the data
and the findings together with the co author Mr Mutassim,
who is also here with us today. Mutassim
Rami Al
Assir. Sorry,
we will then take questions regarding this report and
its findings and our experts will be available to answer
Thank you very much as we begin.
Thank you for the journalists who are joining us online
and those present in the room.
And Mr Deputy Secretary General, the floor is now yours
that you look
thank you.
Today we are releasing a report detailing the economic situation
in the occupied Palestinian territory.
Driven by the ongoing conflict in Gaza,
the report highlights the economic devastation
and unprecedented drop
in economic activity
greater than in all previous military confrontations
in 2008,
2012, 2014
and 2021.
We are talking about inflationary pressure,
soaring unemployment
and collapsing incomes,
all of which have considerably impoverished Palestinian households.
As you know,
the UN General Assembly mandated an NTA quote to report on
the economic costs of the Israeli occupation for the Palestinian people.
And our board requires we report on an
A's work supporting
the Palestinian people
through economic research, capacity building
and policy.
For nearly 44 decades,
an
T
a has been doing that
our most recent report was an assessment in January
of this year on the economic impact of the destruction in Gaza
and prospects
for economic recovery.
I would like to recognise the work of the authors of the report
we are presenting today.
Mutasim
Elara,
coordinator of the assistance to the Palestinian People Unit in An,
and
Rami Abdul Muti, Ala,
lead author of this report
for their extraordinary work and commitment.
The report we share with you today portrays a region
in great economic distress
with collapsing GDP,
widespread poverty
and soaring unemployment.
This now affects all the occupied Palestinian territories,
territory
impacting people in Gaza.
The West Bank
and East Jerusalem,
and it is putting a severe strain on basic services.
Let me go first to Gaza's economic collapse.
Gaza's GDP has dropped
by an alarming 81%
in the last quarter of 2023 alone.
This has led to a 22% contraction
in GDP for the entire year.
Gaza's economy is now
less than 1/6
of what it was
in 2022.
The destruction of up to 96%
of Gaza's agricultural assets,
which are the backbone of the economy,
have been destroyed.
And 82% of all business businesses have also been destroyed,
further deteriorating
the economy.
Secondly, looking at the West Bank,
we see a surge in poverty
and spiralling unemployment,
which are intensifying the impact on households
and driving poverty.
The crisis has had a devastating effect on the labour market,
with mass job losses,
deepening poverty and worsening
the humanitarian crisis
in Gaza,
two thirds of pre-war jobs
approximately
200,000
were lost
by January 2024.
In the West Bank,
unemployment has risen from 12.9%
before the conflict
to a staggering
32%.
This has resulted in an estimated daily labour income loss
of $25.5 million
eroding household resilience,
an increasing
social
hardship.
So we are seeing that
the West Bank has also
been affected
from
the economic fallout.
The initial optimism of a 4% GDP growth
in the West Bank
during the first three quarters of 2023
has been reversed
and what we are seeing
is an overall annual GDP
decline
of 1.9%.
Finally, it is of great concern
that the Palestinian government's fiscal stability
is under severe threat.
Since October 2023
Israel's withholding of Palestinian revenues
has escalated
since 2019
withheld revenues total over $1.4 billion.
This amounts
to 8.1%
of Palestine's GDP
in 2023.
With health revenues, together with a sharp decline in
international aid,
have crippled
the government's
ability
to function.
Public employees
have not been paid full salaries
since November 2021
and essential services
are at risk
of collapse.
The Palestinian economy
is in free fall.
The report calls for the international community
to halt
this economic freefall,
address the humanitarian crisis
and lay the groundwork for lasting peace
and development.
This includes considering
a comprehensive recovery plan
for the occupied Palestinian territory,
increased international aid and support
release of withheld revenues
and lifting the blockade
on Gaza.
As I said
earlier.
And thats for nearly four decades
has been working
to strengthen the Palestinian economy in support of the
of the Palestinian people
through research and analysis,
advocacy
and capacity building.
And it remains an ongoing commitment.
Thank you.
Ok,
thank you very much. Deputy Secretary General of
I'll give the floor to
Mutasim
Migra, co ordinator of the assistance to the Palestinian People Unit in
and author of this report
Mutasim,
The floor is yours. Please go ahead.
Uh, thank you.
Um thank you, Mr
Pedro Moreno.
First,
let me say something about the scope of this report.
The report As usual, it is an annual report to the UN Trade and Development Board.
And the scope covers all the occupied Palestinian territory.
It's not about one region.
It covers the West Bank, Gaza
and East Jerusalem,
but regarding Gaza Early in this year,
published an assessment of the economic impact of the war on Gaza.
And that assessment is available. It is still there
the insights there are still relevant.
Maybe the numbers have changed. The magnitude of the damage have changed, but
the analysis remain
valid.
Also
prepared the report to the UN General Assembly
on the
economic impact of the war in Gaza until mid 2024
and that report will be
made available soon.
So I refer you to these two reports because
they are specifically about the impact of war in Gaza
and
put
the focus in raising these reports
here we take up the whole occupied Palestinian territory.
So, uh,
if I am to summarise this report just in a few sentences, I will say that
the state of the Palestinian economy was
in dire conditions
before the latest war,
so it just got worse.
What has changed is the scale of the destruction.
But before the war, the situation was really grim.
But of course the scale matters. This is a scale of destruction is unprecedented.
Also,
we should put in mind that the situation in Gaza is catastrophic.
But in the West Bank, the situation is also really there. And it is deteriorating
by the day.
So the problem is general
in Gaza, in the West bank and in East Jerusalem. It's not just Gaza,
although
in Gaza it is really extreme.
it will take, uh,
decades and high tens of billions of dollars, if not even more,
to
rebuild Raza and put it back
where it was before October 2023.
So if we want to
return
Raza to pre October 2023 we need
tens of billions of dollars or even more
decades.
But the goal should not be like bringing
Raza to pre October 2023. The goal is to put Raza
on a path of sustainable development,
and that will take even more resources and more time.
The
other important thing that emphasised in the
report is the fiscal crisis which Pedro mentioned
grieving the Palestinian government. The crisis is really bad.
It has affected the government's
ability to provide services, to deliver governance and to
just pay social transfers to the poor and even pays to
its employees.
You know,
Palestinian government employees have been receiving partial salaries since
November 2021 and it got worse after this crisis.
OK, the other important thing is that we finalised this report by early June 2024
so the statistics about the key indicators there are dated.
So since then these numbers may have changed and changed to the worst.
OK. The reports observed that 2023 was the 30th anniversary of the Oslo accords.
We know that in 1993 the Oslo accord, one was signed
and the goal of the accord was signed by
the Palestinian Liberation Organisation and the government of Israel.
The goal was to establish peace based on
the United Nations and Security Council resolution.
The coordinator, the great hopes that peace has become within reach,
which was good news for the Palestinians, for the Israelis, for the region,
and indeed for the whole world.
So the latest war that started in Gaza in October 2023
coincided with the C
University of the Oslo
peace accords,
and that says a lot about
the deterioration of the situation, from hope to despair and destruction.
in the years that followed the signing of the
Oslo Accord,
it was a roller coaster. Some years were good. They witnessed Cooper operation,
some development in Palestine,
economic development and Cooper operation
between different parties and stakeholders,
including
the international community and the United Nations
and some years were years of confrontation, destruction and reversals.
So, like since October
now I'm talking about the whole
Palestinian economy, you know, like the totality of the economy
in
the West Bank and Jerusalem is Jerusalem.
Uh, so after October 2023
you know, like it witnessed the worst and most destructive military confrontation
since probably 1967. And certainly since the establishment of the
Palestinian National Authority or the Palestinian government in 1994
because of the war across whole
or Palestinian territory,
production processes and trade were disrupted or wiped out,
incomes
evaporated and poverty deepened and widened.
So the scale of the destruction and loss
in economic activity and loss in income and employment
exceeded all previous military operations in 2008, 2012, 2014, 2021.
This is the worst and most destructive,
uh, time
uh witnessed by the Palestinian economy since its occupation in 1967.
And, uh,
the decline in income and economic activity is
in 2024 is on course
to be the
the the worst since 1967. As I said
so, like, value added in all sectors deteriorated. No sector
was spared.
For example, the Palestinian agricultural sector
in the last quarter of 2023
shrunk by 11%.
And that is especially worrisome because
the agricultural sector provides
a decent chunk of employment and it produces income. It produces exports,
it contributes to food security
and in Palestine it plays another special role.
The agricultural sector is a shock absorber.
Whenever there is a crisis and Palestinian workers lose their jobs,
whether in the domestic economy or they work in Israel and settlements,
they go back to agriculture temporarily
and there they can produce some income. They can produce some food
and also their work there,
provide them with dignity until they find the next job and when the crisis is over.
So we are extremely worried about what happened to
Palestinian agriculture in the West Bank and in Gaza.
so because of the
disruption to economic activities and trade activities
also, imports
in the last quarter of 2023 fell by one third,
and the shortages that
resulted from disruption of trade and production,
fuel inflation,
high inflationary pressures
and especially the prices of food and fuel increased by a
lot and these are necessities that nobody can do without them.
So household welfare deteriorated
by loss of income because people lose their jobs
and by, uh, loss of employment and also by high inflation.
So household were really, really, uh,
squeezed,
and they resorted to unsustainable and tragic caring strategies.
The last thing I would say about the Palestinian economy as a whole is that
asymmetric dependence on the Israeli market continued.
So as you know,
like Palestinian economy is not allowed to trade
normally with the rest of the world.
There are so
many restrictions imposed by occupation
that makes it hard for Palestinians to trade with the rest of the world.
So Palestinians are forced to conduct most of their trade with the Israeli market.
So in 2023 Israel accounted for
two thirds of Palestinian imports came from Israel,
So
two thirds of Palestinian trade with Israel on the other side,
Palestine account only for 3% of Israeli trade.
This is asymmetric dependence. It is not natural. It is a product of occupation.
Uh, now
a few words about
Teresa
Raza
has been under blockade since 2000
and seven. It has been a tight air, land
and sea blockade.
Palestinians in Gaza were not allowed to import
as they wish, whether consumer goods or imports or technology.
They were not also allowed to freely move in and out of Gaza.
They needed permission from the occupying power.
And these permissions were not easy
to get.
So
I mean, in history did not in Gaza or anywhere history did not start in
October 2023. There is a long history
to the conflict.
Between 2008 and 2021 the occupying power
implemented several military operations in Gaza.
This operation decimated most of the Palestinian productive base.
They hauled out the economy
and destroyed much of the infrastructure.
And the latest war,
like, literally
obliterated what was left of that feeble infrastructure.
I will not, uh, enumerate, uh, loss and destruction because, you know, I don't like
more than
three quarters of schools were damaged or destroyed.
Most of the hospitals were destroyed, and
even the hospitals that are still on operation, they
they lack
fuel,
electricity, medical supplies. And
they like giving basic security. I'm sure you know all of these things.
I will just say that by early 2024 82%
of private sector establishments were damaged or destroyed.
In Gaza,
unemployment shot to about 80%
and a third of the people by early 2024 were displaced from their homes
and some of them displaced multiple times. Now they live in crowded shelters
under conditions of lack of food, lack of medical care
and the lack of hygiene. These are ideal conditions for
the spread of disease, physical disease and psychological disease, and
all types of suffering
by 2022 80% of the people of Gaza depended on international aid.
That is in 2022 before the war.
After the war,
poverty and multi
dimensional poverty engulfs the whole population of Gaza.
So
it was bad before the war because 80% were dependent on international aid.
It got worse
after the war, so the war was just a change in the scale. The suffering
was there before the war.
If we go to the West Bank,
the war started in Gaza. But soon the confrontation spilled to the West Bank
and occupying power
increased its restrictions on the movement of
Palestinian people and good in the West Bank
and entrances to most villages and towns in the West Bank were
blocked by the occupying power
and checkpoints,
which are barriers to the movement of people
and goods increased from 567 before the war
to more than 700 after in early 2024.
So
this is not new, just an increase in the scale.
Before the war, you had 567 barriers to the movement of the Palestinian people.
They just
increased to 700. It's a change in the scale
this restriction hinder the delivery of humanitarian aid.
They cause
shortages of consumer goods and inputs
and also obstruct the access of workers to their work sites.
99% of his bank economic establishment were affected by the confrontation, 99%.
That basically means everyone
sales dropped and firms were forced to lay out workers,
lay off workers or cut wages,
and small and medium enterprises were hit. The hardest
Uh, situation has also
deteriorated in east Jerusalem.
It witnessed a considerable economic
downturn in key economic activities, whether there being trade,
tourism and services,
where 80% of businesses in the whole city of east Jerusalem
reported either complete or partial cessation
of operation.
Other cities in the West Bank were also affected,
especially by the loss of customers from the Israeli side.
A
lot of Israelis used to shop in Palestinian cities for different reasons.
Price differential, cultural ties,
whatever
and this cross border shopping stopped completely.
So
a
lot of businesses lost their customers
and shoppers from the
sale. I accounted for significant part of very good demand in
certain cities, so that was really
hard on some cities.
Um
so, like household cop
is the loss of income unemployment by
things like selling personal items, selling gold
or vending on the streets. And, uh
uh,
I will say something about unemployment and unemployment in the West Bank.
In previous report
warned
that the West Bank economy excessively
depends on employment in Israeli settlements
and in the Israeli economy.
By 2022 22.5%.
That's like almost 23% of employed people in the West Bank work either in settlement
or in Israel,
And
that situation was caused by the fact that the
domestic economy is restricted by occupation. It cannot reduce jobs,
so people find this is the only way for them to get to work is to work in settlements
or in the Israeli economy.
And we have warned that this source of employment is precarious
because it is vulnerable to change in political and security situations.
So
these
these workers in
Israel and settlement used to earn $4 billion a
year and $4 billion was about one quarter of Palestinian
north West Bank
Palestinian.
So
all these all these workers, or a world of 90% of them, lost access to their jobs
when the war started. That was a huge shock to Palestinian households
and to the Palestinian
economy as a whole
another.
Even the Palestinian workers who work in the domestic economy
60 67,000 of them
be became unable to access their work sites. Because if you live in
you live in this city and then you work in another town outside,
you cannot move to your workplace because of the deterioration of the security,
uh, situation.
So,
uh,
that that that was tough.
Um
um, Now
and also in 2023 and 2024 at least far south
of 2024 settlements continued to expand in the West Bank.
That
and these settlements are
a
flagrant violation under international law,
according to the United Nations Resolution and Security Council resolutions,
including Resolution 2334 of 2016,
which describes them as flagrant violation under international law.
But they continue to expand.
Uh,
when the
on the eve of the Isla
Accord in 1993 there were 250,000 settlers
in East Jerusalem and the West Bank,
and by the end of 2023 these settlers grew to 700,000.
So
as the growth of settlement is
facilitated by economic incentives provided by the occupying power,
it builds infrastructure that makes settlements possible. Sometimes it
provides tax advantages and other subsidies to settlers to move there,
and these settlements displace Palestinians from their land.
They alter the demographic composition of the West Bank,
and they hinder a two state solution.
They make peace based on the two state solution much harder.
They fragment Palestinian
geography and markets,
and they impede economic development.
Like when you lose your land and natural resources, how can you develop?
You cannot develop
uh,
also in
in
area
of the West Bank
is like 60% of the West Bank.
Palestinians cannot build anything without getting
permission from the occupying power.
You cannot build the infrastructure.
You cannot build a house for residents or for business or for any purpose
until you get permission
from the occupying power.
And the acceptance rate for these permissions
is 1%.
1% is accepted, 99% of the application rejected.
If you build without permit,
buying board destroys these assets you build.
The destruction also
includes donor
funded structures.
OK,
OK,
so these are the situation in the
in the West Bank and, uh,
also, uh, settler violence peaked after October 2023
and all this creates a coercive environment that pushes Palestinians out of area
of the West Bank. So Palestinians move out and Israeli sectors move in.
And the democratic
composition
Uh, James
Pedro talked about the severe fiscal crisis faced by the Palestinian government.
I will not add to that. I just
I just say that if the Palestinian government
collapses because of lack of fiscal resources,
the consequences will be there.
These consequences can be political, economic and social.
Uh,
I will stop here, and then we maybe We can, uh,
uh, continue later.
Thank you very much.
We now open the floor for questions regarding this report from the media.
First, we will take questions from journalists in the room and then
from online journalists.
Please identify yourselves when you make your questions.
And I would also invite to the podium Mr Rami Abdul Muti
Alai,
co author of the report
and to whom I apologise for the earlier mispronunciation of his name.
Thank you. We'll take questions. First, please identify yourself for the benefit
of our speakers. Thank you.
Hello. My name is Christopher.
I'm a reporter with
France
Here. Thanks for the thanks for the pressure.
I wanted to come back to what you said, sir, uh,
about how much it's going to cost and how long it's going to take
to rebuild.
So you talked about high tens of billions? Is there
are Is Zad
working on a more precise plan?
Could you give us a more precise figure and how much time it would take
to rebuild Gaza?
If we imagine that the destruction stops now?
Thank you. We can take a further question, perhaps from the room, and then
pass it on to our authors.
F
one by one.
OK,
at
the moment it
is very hard because the war is still rage zone
and so we don't know when it will stop. We don't know how much destruction will
happen until it stops,
but evidence we have now it will be,
as I said, like high tens of billions or even maybe even more,
because
a few months ago, just the houses that were destroyed,
the buildings that were destroyed, cost like maybe 18 to $20 billion.
So if you just want to replace these buildings, it's just $20 billion.
And
I mean the destruction has intensified since then.
And also,
if you talk about the infrastructure
destroyed the irrigation systems that were destroyed
as the farms, you know, just removing the rubble will be very costly,
and it will take such a long time.
So
it will take
really, really a
lot of billions of dollars, and it will take decades to bring Gaza
back to where it was before October 2023.
But repeat the goal of the international community should
not be returning Gaza to pre October 2023.
It needs to be put
on a path to sustainable development by establishing peace, lifting the blockade,
allowing the Palestinians
to produce normally and trade normally in peace with the rest
of the world.
Thank you very much.
Further questions from the room? Yes, please.
Good afternoon. I'm Jamie from Associated Press.
Um, I wanted to just go over the numbers, if you don't mind.
You mentioned this figure of 1/6 that it's, uh
uh to,
uh
to client to, uh, to 1/6.
Um, could you just be a little bit more specific about how you get to that number?
Because I did the math, and I'm sure your math is better than mine. But
But, um, I get roughly 1/7 which is, um,
So what is your benchmark for pre 20 Pre October 2027. Is it the previous quarter?
Is it the previous year?
Are you? I mean, just how do you get to that?
Because the latest figure that I saw was I think it was 92.2
million for the end of the first quarter, which seems to be the most recent, uh, 2024.
So how do you How do you get to 16. Thanks.
Thank you very much.
The question, please.
But this number, like depend on what are we comparing?
If we're comparing, uh, last quarter of 2023 with the last quarter of 2022
or are we comparing the first quarter of 2024 to the
first quarter of 2023 or are we averaging them out?
So that's, uh, change the calculations,
but I think
Rami can can give you
more details.
So it is. It is true. The, uh,
sorry.
So the first quarter of 2024 the
in Gaza basically was
14% of what it was in
Q, one of 2023.
But looking, when we say the economy in Gaza is
less than 1/6 is basically the averaging of the
Q four of 2023 and the Q one of 2024 in Q.
4. 2023. The economy lost
81%
of its value compared to
Q four of 2022
and then in Q, one of 2024. It lost
86% of what it was in Q, one of 2023.
So it's not a one quarter
kind of calculation. It's an average of the since the,
uh, the war in Gaza started.
I
just wanna make sure I heard you correctly. So the the the 1/6 you're talking about
Q four of 2023 compared to Q one of 2024. Is that right?
It's the average decline. So if you take Q four and Q one, Q 4, 2023 and Q one of 2024
and you compare them to the similar quarters of Q 4, 2022 and Q 1 2023.
So it's, uh,
it's one quarter like now.
The one quarter will not give you the full picture, but you can see the trend
over the quarters.
So first we started with the 81 decline. Now we have 86 decline.
So on average, that's why we say it's less like 16% of what it was.
And the last figures you have is Q one of 2024. Correct? Exactly.
Yes, that is clear.
Thank you.
If there are no further questions from the room,
we now go to our colleagues who are online.
I first give the floor to Jeremy. Lunch
from Radio France, please. The floor is yours. We hear your question.
Thank you. Um,
I'd like to go back to the
To what? You just said to what, Mr, um,
Moreno said earlier, like, two thirds of jobs
uh, destroyed. I'd like to know what are the remaining third that,
uh, are left, uh, who is working today in in Gaza. And how is money basically running?
Um, given the extent of the devastation and and we even talk of
of an economy,
uh, left in, in, in, in
Gaza. I'm not talking about the West Bank, but,
uh,
is there any economy left there?
Thank you very much for the question. I will pass it over to Rami. Please go ahead.
So what's left?
What's left in Gaza is basically the humanitarian.
The humanitarian support
there is not much left in Gaza.
And we will say two thirds of the jobs were lost already.
Gaza's unemployment before October 2023 was 45%.
So what's left in Gaza now is just the humanitarian aid workers, local staff,
doctors, nurses.
That's it. The economy is
basically collapsed months ago.
So this is what's left in Gaza Functioning now.
Thank you. I do not see any further questions
in the room.
Please go ahead.
Maybe a follow up to Rami. What about West Bank?
Thank you. Could you kindly identify yourself?
I'm Dina, a
S,
a
correspondent of different Arabic media. Thank you. Thank you.
In
the West Bank, it's what we're seeing now It's the worst economic decline
has registered since 1972 in terms of GDP in terms of GDP per capita.
And
if we just look at the first quarter of 2024 the decline was one quarter of the GDP.
Our estimate says that the decline during 2024 will
be between one quarter and one third of the economic
activity in the West Bank.
And just to give you a comparison, in the peak of the second intifada in 2000 to 2002,
the Palestinian economy lost 33 per cent of its value.
And now we're seeing this drop over one year
unemployment.
Basically, it's the highest unemployment recorded for the West Bank.
Even in the peak of the second intifada, the highest we've seen is 28 per cent
in the first quarter of 2024 unemployment reached 35 per cent.
So we're talking about
almost triple what it was prior to October 2023
if I may add something.
Also, in addition to the problem of unemployment is that
public sector employees have been receiving partial salaries for three years now
and also private sector employees witnessed reduction
in their salaries that averaging around 20%.
The other thing about unemployment when we say unemployment is 35%
it means 35% of people who are looking for work cannot find it.
There are thousands of people or hundreds of thousands of people who
do not work and they lost hope of finding a job.
So they dropped out of the labour market. These are not included when
include them.
That shows the problem of unemployment is far worse than the 35% official rate.
Thank you very much. I see no further questions.
So thank you for joining us here today and I
remind journalists that the report is online on our website as
our previous assessments earlier this year to which our colleagues referred to
and of course our experts are available to speak to media for any further questions.
And Jamie again?
Yes.
One last question. I'm just rereading my copy as I prepared this.
you do say this recovery plan.
Um, you talk about this? Maybe somebody asked this.
I'm sorry if I'm repeating it, but,
what kind of time frame
given the current state of affairs, do you see that possibly happening? I mean,
is there a recovery plan
E, even invisible or
in sight? At the moment?
What I can say is that we are the UN
trade and development and our expertise is economic and development.
So the recovery plan is depends on when the war will end.
And that a political question.
It is a question for the whole international community.
And once the war ends, and then after that, there will be a need
to mobilise global resources for rebuilding.
And that's also a political question. So
more once the political questions and the political constraints are removed,
then we can We will be able to provide the
answers that take up the economic dimensions of it.
So thank you very much.
And with this, we close a press conference in this regard I would also
point
you to the recent statements by the UN Secretary General he made
yesterday and the day before regarding this and he speaks for all of us. So
I would refer you to those and to our economic analysis, which is online,
and our experts, which are available for any further
questions you might have. Thank you very much indeed. Thank you.