The United Nations Office at Geneva
Multimedia Newsroom
WMO Press conference 28 October 2024
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25:22
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MP4
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1.5 GB
Story: Record greenhouse gas levels - WMO
Speakers:
Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General
Oksana Tarasova, Senior scientific officer, WMO
TRT: 0x’”
SOURCE: UNTV CH
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16:9
DATELINE: 28 October 2024 - GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
RESTRICTIONS: None
SHOTLIST
- Exterior medium shot: UN flag alley.
- Wide shot of the press conference room with speakers at the podium.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “Carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than at any time experienced during human existence, and because of the extremely long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere we are committed to rising temperatures for many, many years to come.”
- Medium shot of the podium’s speakers.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “These are more than statistics; every part per million matters, every fraction of a degree of temperature increase matters; it matters in terms of the speed of glacier and ice retreat, the acceleration of sea level rise, ocean heat and acidification. It matters in terms of the number of people who will be exposed to extreme heat every year, the extinction of species, the impact on our ecosystems and economies.”
- Medium shot, TV screen showing CO2 dataset and graph with automatic TV camera in shot.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “Yet again, unfortunately, we have to report that the main greenhouse gases, CO2, methane and nitrous oxide are all at record levels. In 2004, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 377.1 parts per million. In 2023, 20 years later, it was at 420 parts per million, according to data from WMO’s Global Atmosphere Watch Network. This is an increase of 42.9 parts per million, or 11.4 per cent in just 20 years.”
- Medium-wide shot of speakers and Press room.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Oksana Tarasova, Senior scientific officer, WMO: “We have not seen these levels of CO2 in the history of humanity. The last time we see 400 parts per million of CO2 was three to five million years ago, and during that time, the temperature was three to four degrees warmer.”
- Medium, journalist typing on laptop.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “The reason you’re seeing such variations even in the projections of what temperature rise might be in our future, it’s because it’s very much linked to the actions countries take now and the rapid - the ability to - make a rapid transition to a lower fossil fuel economy. And even though there is a lag and temperatures will rise, we are not to be dissuaded from action, because there will be a transformation and a downward trend in temperature in future. It all just depends on how quickly we take action and how fast we can reduce those temperatures.”
- Medium, podium speakers, UN logo as backdrop.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “Personally, I see a lot of attention to science in the statements that are being made from politicians worldwide. So I do think they are listening, the question is to what degree will we see that manifest at COP29 in action.”
- Medium shot of TV screen showing data on greenhouse gas concentrations.
- Wide shot, Press room, TV screens showing Ms. Barrett and dataset.
- Medium shot, TV screen showing greenhouse gases dataset and graph with automatic TV camera in shot.
Greenhouse gases reached another record high in 2023, warns UN weather agency
New data released by the UN on Monday indicating that greenhouse gases have hit a record high shows once again that urgent action and not words is needed from the world’s major polluters to protect us all from climate change, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) insisted.
The appeal comes as global leaders prepare to gather for the UN’s Climate Change Conference in Baku next month, amid repeated dire warnings about the human cost of ignoring the existential crisis from UN Secretary-General António Guterres and others.
Echoing the UN chief’s longstanding appeals, WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett told journalists that carbon dioxide (CO2) – one of the three main greenhouse gases, along with methane and nitrous oxide - is now accumulating in the atmosphere “faster than at any time experienced during human existence”. Because of the extremely long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere, “we are committed to rising temperatures for many, many years to come”, she added.
WMO’s 2024 Greenhouse Gas Bulletin offers a stark, scientific reminder that rising CO2 levels need to be slowed. In 2004, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 377.1 parts per million (ppm), while in 2023, this reached 420 ppm, according to WMO’s Global Atmosphere Watch Network. “This is an increase of 42.9 parts per million, or 11.4 per cent in just 20 years,” Ms. Barrett explained.
“These are more than statistics," the WMO deputy chief insisted. "Every part per million matters, every fraction of a degree of temperature increase matters; it matters in terms of the speed of glacier and ice retreat, the acceleration of sea level rise, ocean heat and acidification. It matters in terms of the number of people who will be exposed to extreme heat every year, the extinction of species, the impact on our ecosystems and economies.”
Key greenhouse gas-producing events include forest fires and the El Niño weather phenomenon which fuelled drier conditions and a “surge” in concentrations in the latter part of 2023, according to WMO. Its analysis shows that just under half of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, just over one quarter are absorbed by the ocean and just under 30 per cent are retained on land.
Senior scientific officer at WMO, Oksana Tarasova, described last year’s wildfires in Canada as “absolutely dramatic” in terms of the amount of greenhouse gases produced.
Today’s CO2 levels have not been seen “in the history of humanity”, she said. “The last time we see 400 parts per million of CO2 was three to five million years ago, and during that time, the temperature was three to four degrees warmer” and sea levels 10-20 metres higher.
The WMO report pointed out that from 1990 to 2023, radiative forcing – the warming effect on our climate from greenhouse gases increased by 51.5 per cent. CO2 accounted for more than 80 per cent of this increase, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Annual Greenhouse Gas Index.
“As long as emissions continue, greenhouse gases will continue accumulating in the atmosphere leading to global temperature rise,” the UN agency said. “Given the extremely long life of CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature level already observed will persist for several decades even if emissions are rapidly reduced to net zero.”
Asked about whether the UN climate conference might be expected to yield tangible commitments from countries, the WMO Deputy Secretary-General noted that politicians worldwide do reference the latest scientific climate findings and forecasts in their public declarations. “So I do think they are listening, the question is to what degree will we see that manifest at COP29 in action,” she said.
Ms. Barrett noted that measures taken at a national level to transition to a “lower fossil fuel economy” were massively important to safeguard future generations.
“Even though there is a lag and temperatures will rise, we are not to be dissuaded from action,” she said, “because there will be a transformation and a downward trend in temperature in future. It all just depends on how quickly we take action and how fast we can reduce those temperatures.”
Teleprompter
Press conference on the release of our Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.
This is a publication that we release every year.
It reports on atmospheric concentrations of the main long lived greenhouse gases in the in the atmosphere.
You should have received all the materials under embargo.
The press releases available in all official UN languages and we are obviously publishing this report ahead of the annual climate change negotiations, COP 29 this year to be held in in Baku, Azerbaijan.
So I have the honour of introducing you to Co Barrett, who is the WMO Deputy Secretary General, who will speak to you on the main findings of the report.
And then we'll be joined also by Oksana Tarasova, who is a senior scientific officer.
She's the coordinator of the bulletin and she can provide you with more tech technical explanations as to why we're seeing what we are seeing.
So without any further ado, I'll give the floor to Mrs Barrett.
Thank you.
Thank you, Claire.
Hello everyone, So we're here today to present the 20th edition of the World Meteorological Organisation Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.
And yet again, unfortunately, we have to report that long lived greenhouse gases, that's carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are all at record levels.
In 2004, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 377.1 parts per million.
In 20/23/20 years later it was at 420 parts per million.
According to data from WM OS Global Atmosphere Watch Network, this is an increase of 42.9 parts per million or 11.4% in just 20 years.
CO2 is 151% of the pre industrial level in 1750, methane is 265% and nitrous oxide is 125% of the pre industrial level From 1990 to 2023.
Radiative forcing, that is the warming effect on our climate by long lived greenhouse gases, increased by 51.5%.
But these are more than just statistics.
Every part per million matters.
Every fraction of a degree of temperature increase matters.
It matters in terms of the speed of glacier and ice retreat, the acceleration of sea level rise, ocean heat and acidification.
It matters in terms of the number of people who will be exposed to extreme heat every year, the extinction of species, the impact on our ecosystems and economies.
Carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than at any time experienced during human existence.
And because of the extremely long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere, we are committed to rising temperatures for many, many years to come.
We're far off track from achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.
As you may recall, the UN Environment Programme emissions gap issued last week made this very clear.
It said failure to dramatically and immediately scale up climate action would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6 to 3.1°C above the course of this over the course of this century.
This is frankly too hot to handle, and the Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reports on concentrations of CO2 and other gases, not emissions, as UNEP does.
Just about half of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere.
For the other half, just over 1/4 are absorbed by the ocean and just under 30% by land ecosystems.
There is a big year to year variability in this because of naturally occurring phenomena like El Nino and La Nina.
And in the course of 2023, large vegetation, fire, CO2 emissions and a possible reduction in carbon absorption by forests helped to drive the increase.
We transitioned to an El Nino event in mid 2023.
During El Nino years, generally greenhouse gas levels tend to rise because drier vegetation and forest fires reduce the efficiency of land carbon sinks.
However, the bulletin warns that the carbon cycle risk becomes a potentially vicious cycle in the near future.
The climate change feedbacks could cause ecosystems to become larger sources of greenhouses gases.
Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, whilst the warmer ocean temperatures might absorb less CO2.
Consequently, more CO2 could stay in the atmosphere to accelerate global warming.
These climate feedbacks are critical concerns to human society.
We need to increase our understanding of the carbon cycle and carbon fluxes and sinks.
We also need to increase our understanding of the variability of methane concentrations.
But most of all, we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
WMO is releasing this greenhouse gas bulletin today to inform the UN Climate Change Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan.
In Baku, we will also be releasing the state of the climate, the global climate for 2024, an update which will clearly show the impacts that record greenhouse gas levels are having on our climate.
Thank you for your attention.
Thank you.
And we'll now pass over to Oksana Tarasova, who coordinated this report.
Thank you.
Thank you very much.
I will go through the series of slides where you can actually get additional information about the levels of greenhouse gases.
As you can see on the table on the screen, concentrations of major greenhouse gases CO2, methane in into all reached their new heights.
CO2 is currently at the level of 420 parts per million.
This as an increase of 51% above pre industrial levels for Co, 265% above pre industrial level for methane and 25% above pre industrial level for into all.
Can we go to the next slide please?
So if we look at the dynamics of the changes of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, you can see that in 2023 it is an increase of 2.3 PPM parts per million relative to 2022 and as I mentioned 51% increase above.
Pre industrial time.
The main sources of C2 in the atmosphere are emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production.
And as Deputy Secretary General mentioned, about 23% of emissions are taken up by the ocean and about 30% are taken up by the terrestrial biosphere.
The difference between the anthropogenic emission and natural carbon cycle is that we have very large fluxes which are related to the biosphere which is emitting CO2 through respiration and absorbing CO2 through the photosynthetic activities.
While the human activities are only emitting and not absorbing anything.
Next slide please.
2023 was already the 12th year in in our long record where we have a consecutive year of increase above 2 parts per million.
We also take a look at what happened within a year.
So we did the analysis of changes from first January 2023 to 31st December 2023 and we've seen the impact of El Nino.
So the increase within a year was 2.8 parts per million.
And on the lower plot you can see that there is a lot of geographical variability and all the reddish spots they correspond to the larger increase.
The fossil fuel emissions were about 10 picogram of carbon which is a significant increase in comparison with 1960 and also we had large contribution from Canadian wildfires which are probably one of the worst wildfire season for the North America producing 0.6 picogram of carbon just within this year.
Next slide please.
Methane concentration has also increased.
It is an 11 PPB increase from 2022 to 2023.
That's 165% about pre industrial and it's about 8% increase within the last 20 years.
The main sources are 60% anthropogenic, which is waste management, agriculture, fossil fuel and about 40% are natural.
And those natural emissions of methane are sensitive to climate change.
So when it becomes warmer or wetter, the tropical wetlands have a positive response to those events.
Though the mitigation actions on methane will be pretty efficient because it's lifetime is about 10 years.
Next slide please.
Neutrals oxide is the third most important atropogenic greenhouse gas.
It increased by 1.1 parts per billion from 2022 to 2023 and it's 25% increase since pre industrial.
If we take a look at the last 20 years, it's a 5% increase given long lifetime in the atmosphere of 121 years.
We need to keep an eye on nitrous oxide and it also when it gets to the stratosphere, it is very dangerous and destroys stratosheric ozone.
Next slide please.
So the data which represent in the greenhouse gas pelotons are coming from the global network of the station which perform measurements on the ground.
So it's a real people doing real measurements in the real atmosphere.
Those measurements are performed following the common protocols and standards which are developed by the World Meteorological Organisation.
You can see that the number of the slides is about 146 for CE253 for methane and 112 for neutrals oxide.
As you can see on the plot, there are substantial gaps in the observing network, which actually limits our knowledge to understand what happens with carbon cycle and what happens with greenhouse gases.
And largely those gaps are situated in the developing countries like in Africa or Southeast Asia or in South America.
Unfortunately, without understanding the carbon cycle in those parts of the world, we will have large uncertainty with a projection of what happens with the concentrations of the main greenhouse gases.
Thank you very much.
Thank you, Oxana, for the scientific background so that our colleagues can understand just exactly what goes into these estimates.
I just wanted to make maybe one small point, and that is, as you see in Exxon his slides, some of the variations are going up or down depending on natural variations.
But the one thing that is constant is that humans are always up.
The contributions from greenhouse gas emissions are always up.
So with that, I'll turn it back to you, Claire.
Thank you very much.
Yeah.
OK.
So we give priority to the question in the room.
So if you could just introduce yourself.
Thank you.
Robin Millard from AFP.
So this is coming ahead of COP 29 and you seem to be speaking with a lot of urgency about what needs to happen.
But do you, do you get the sense that the, the people who are negotiating on behalf of states at COP 29 really truly understand the, the level of urgency that you're, that you're trying to get across?
What do you, what is it that, that you want to see from them at COP 29?
Well, it's it's clear that the UN Secretary General has certainly placed a kind of bright spotlight on scientific findings like these that, you know, are very useful to setting political ambition, right.
We certainly believe from a WMO perspective that the science that we provide provides essential underpinning for the understanding.
Now it's up to the countries themselves to use this information to drive their climate actions.
Personally, I see a lot of attention to science in statements that are being made by politicians worldwide.
So I do think they are listening.
The question is, you know, to what degree will we see that manifest at COP 29 in action?
And online, we have a question from Spanish news agency FA Antonio Proto.
Thank you.
Good morning.
So I have a technical question maybe because there is a detail in the report that caught my attention.
Usually this is compared with pre industrial levels and this time it says that pre industrial levels means 1750 year in previous reports is 1850.
Is there any change in the, in the, in the way that this is compare or or or or this is normal?
Thank you.
Thank you very much.
The 1750 is the pre industrial levels and I think that we used the same number in the previous report.
This number is recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.
So it's always relative to 1750.
Just to clarify, the 1850 we use quite often for the temperature records because that's when the reliable observations began.
So the state of the climate update which we'll be producing in a couple of years time that we'll be using 181850.
But for greenhouse gases it's always 1750.
Do you have a follow up?
Thank you for the clarification, Claire.
And I have another question if I May is just if there is all these, all these numbers are from last year.
Do you have any interim calculations for this year on the concentrations of of greenhouse gases?
We are under El Nino this year and maybe maybe this can also accelerate the concentrations where, what numbers do you have so far?
We do not produce the global average number for this year, particularly the interim because we need to produce the number with a with a very, very small uncertainty.
So if you look at the levels of uncertainty, it's it's 420 with uncertainty of 0.1, which requires a lot of attention to quality assurance in quality control of individual data sets.
There are some individual data sets for example from Mona Lore which can show continuous increase in concentration and from the other stations, but we are not producing the global average.
So, but all the stations show the continued increase in this year in 24.
Do you want to elaborate a little bit on El Nino?
Yeah, in the, in the cases of in the cases of El Nino, it's, it's a phenomenon which actually does impact the uptake of C2 by the terrestrial biosphere because during El Nino you have a very dry conditions which suppress the photosynthetic activities.
And that's a reason why actually in the ballot.
And we looked not only at the number which has increased in 23 relative to 22, but also we looked at what happened within the year.
And then if you look what happened within the year, the increase within a year is larger than just 23 versus 22.
So the increase within the year is 2.8.
And that is an impact of the biomass burning a very strong episodes of biomass burning in Canada.
They were also are substantial burning in in Europe, for example in Greece and there is a contribution of the burning in Bush fires in Australia though if you look at the whole burning season of 2023 up to February 2024, that's not the largest burning season, but the emissions from Canadian fires were absolutely dramatic in 23.
So we see it closer to the end of the year.
On, on climate feedbacks, the report seems to raise a level of level of alarm about, about those and if the, if the permafrost starts thawing out, I mean, what are, what are we in for?
If that happens, what are we?
What are we facing there?
There is a lot of of biomass which is stored in permafrost and if it starts melting it will be very difficult to control.
We have not seen the signs of the dramatic failure in the permafrost.
We've seen inter annual variability.
So in some years it it melts a little bit stronger.
But what we've seen is that there is an impact of a Nino, La Nino on the levels of methane.
When we have a lot of during La Nina, we have a lot of precipitation which actually drives the increase emissions from the from the activities which are related to the water emission.
For example, tropical wetlands or if you have the agriculture, for example rice pedis, they would be acting exactly the same way.
We did look at the state of the permafrost and if emissions are coming and.
We did not, we did not get that tipping point yet, but it may come.
I mean, if the temperature is increasing as is increasing and in the polar latitudes the increase is much larger than the global average temperature increase, we may see the failure in those points.
The same as with what we call is also potential climate feedback.
The same may happen whether for the forest, because as a part of the carbon cycle you have the burning, then you have the rate growth of the forest which takes up CO2.
But what might happen is that the forest which was there, which grew there 50 years ago, if it burns now, it actually meets a completely different temperature.
So not the same type of the trees are growing in the same in the part of the forest.
We've seen it in Amazon where the biomass burning destroyed the tropical forest, the rainforest, and then the recovery happens with the different species.
So maybe just as a follow on point to that, you know, we've we've been kind of measuring these fluxes in greenhouse gases pretty steadily since the 1950s, at least in terms of the network, the network of observing stations that we have.
And that has in general been a key indicator in kind of identifying climate change and that the changes that we anticipate.
But all of these are need to be considered in the context of the manifestations of climate change.
So yes, we may not be seeing a major change in the release of methane, say, from permafrost, but we are certainly seeing the manifestations of impacts to society from the melting of permafrost.
I have spent some time in the Arctic and seen just directly how many of these lands that are basically wetlands are just being decimated by melting of permafrost and, and the impacts to infrastructure, essential infrastructure like roads and buildings.
So, you know, these gases may seem somewhat ethereal, but they are connected to very, very real impacts that we're seeing on the ground from climate change.
And the report says that temperature rises are now locked in for years to come.
I just wondered what the what the time frame might be on that.
Are we talking the next few years?
Are we talking decades?
Are we talking much longer than that?
I will, I will try to put it in a historic perspective.
A couple of bulletins ago we actually put the the number on where did we see this levels of CO2 in the history of humanity and actually we have not seen these levels of CO2 in the history of humanity.
Last time we've seen 400 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere was 3 to 5 million years ago.
And during that time the temperature was 3 to 4° warmer and the sea level was 10 to 20 years higher.
The problem of CO2 is that it is a very long lived greenhouse gas, so it stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years and even if you stop emissions right now, it will drive climate change towards the equilibrium.
So we are talking about very long time perspective when it comes to CO2.
That's why we are also promoting the fast actions on methane because it's much short lived in the atmosphere and if you take actions on methane together with the actions on CO2, then you can kind of level off the warming as it comes.
Yeah.
And I'll maybe I'll just add that the reason you see such variation even in the projections of what temperature rise might be in our future, it's because it is very much linked to the actions that countries take now and the rapid, the ability to make a rapid transition to a low fossil fuel economy.
And even though there, you know, is a lag and temperatures will rise, we are not to be dissuaded from action because there will be a transformation and a downward trend in temperature in the future.
And it all just depends on how quick we take action and how fast we can reduce those temperatures.
Thank you.
Do we have any more questions online?
I can't see any.
Well, thank you very much indeed for your attention.
I know it's a it's a busy schedule today.
You've got lots of competing, competing things.
But thank you.
Thank you very much and thank you to UNTV for hosting hosting this.
If there are any follow up interview requests, please just let us know.
Thanks and have a good day.