The United Nations Office at Geneva
Multimedia Newsroom
WMO Press conference 28 October 2024
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25:22
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MP4
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1.5 GB
Story: Record greenhouse gas levels - WMO
Speakers:
Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General
Oksana Tarasova, Senior scientific officer, WMO
TRT: 0x’”
SOURCE: UNTV CH
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16:9
DATELINE: 28 October 2024 - GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
RESTRICTIONS: None
SHOTLIST
- Exterior medium shot: UN flag alley.
- Wide shot of the press conference room with speakers at the podium.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “Carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than at any time experienced during human existence, and because of the extremely long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere we are committed to rising temperatures for many, many years to come.”
- Medium shot of the podium’s speakers.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “These are more than statistics; every part per million matters, every fraction of a degree of temperature increase matters; it matters in terms of the speed of glacier and ice retreat, the acceleration of sea level rise, ocean heat and acidification. It matters in terms of the number of people who will be exposed to extreme heat every year, the extinction of species, the impact on our ecosystems and economies.”
- Medium shot, TV screen showing CO2 dataset and graph with automatic TV camera in shot.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “Yet again, unfortunately, we have to report that the main greenhouse gases, CO2, methane and nitrous oxide are all at record levels. In 2004, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 377.1 parts per million. In 2023, 20 years later, it was at 420 parts per million, according to data from WMO’s Global Atmosphere Watch Network. This is an increase of 42.9 parts per million, or 11.4 per cent in just 20 years.”
- Medium-wide shot of speakers and Press room.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Oksana Tarasova, Senior scientific officer, WMO: “We have not seen these levels of CO2 in the history of humanity. The last time we see 400 parts per million of CO2 was three to five million years ago, and during that time, the temperature was three to four degrees warmer.”
- Medium, journalist typing on laptop.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “The reason you’re seeing such variations even in the projections of what temperature rise might be in our future, it’s because it’s very much linked to the actions countries take now and the rapid - the ability to - make a rapid transition to a lower fossil fuel economy. And even though there is a lag and temperatures will rise, we are not to be dissuaded from action, because there will be a transformation and a downward trend in temperature in future. It all just depends on how quickly we take action and how fast we can reduce those temperatures.”
- Medium, podium speakers, UN logo as backdrop.
- SOUNDBITE (English) Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “Personally, I see a lot of attention to science in the statements that are being made from politicians worldwide. So I do think they are listening, the question is to what degree will we see that manifest at COP29 in action.”
- Medium shot of TV screen showing data on greenhouse gas concentrations.
- Wide shot, Press room, TV screens showing Ms. Barrett and dataset.
- Medium shot, TV screen showing greenhouse gases dataset and graph with automatic TV camera in shot.
Greenhouse gases reached another record high in 2023, warns UN weather agency
New data released by the UN on Monday indicating that greenhouse gases have hit a record high shows once again that urgent action and not words is needed from the world’s major polluters to protect us all from climate change, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) insisted.
The appeal comes as global leaders prepare to gather for the UN’s Climate Change Conference in Baku next month, amid repeated dire warnings about the human cost of ignoring the existential crisis from UN Secretary-General António Guterres and others.
Echoing the UN chief’s longstanding appeals, WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett told journalists that carbon dioxide (CO2) – one of the three main greenhouse gases, along with methane and nitrous oxide - is now accumulating in the atmosphere “faster than at any time experienced during human existence”. Because of the extremely long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere, “we are committed to rising temperatures for many, many years to come”, she added.
WMO’s 2024 Greenhouse Gas Bulletin offers a stark, scientific reminder that rising CO2 levels need to be slowed. In 2004, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 377.1 parts per million (ppm), while in 2023, this reached 420 ppm, according to WMO’s Global Atmosphere Watch Network. “This is an increase of 42.9 parts per million, or 11.4 per cent in just 20 years,” Ms. Barrett explained.
“These are more than statistics," the WMO deputy chief insisted. "Every part per million matters, every fraction of a degree of temperature increase matters; it matters in terms of the speed of glacier and ice retreat, the acceleration of sea level rise, ocean heat and acidification. It matters in terms of the number of people who will be exposed to extreme heat every year, the extinction of species, the impact on our ecosystems and economies.”
Key greenhouse gas-producing events include forest fires and the El Niño weather phenomenon which fuelled drier conditions and a “surge” in concentrations in the latter part of 2023, according to WMO. Its analysis shows that just under half of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, just over one quarter are absorbed by the ocean and just under 30 per cent are retained on land.
Senior scientific officer at WMO, Oksana Tarasova, described last year’s wildfires in Canada as “absolutely dramatic” in terms of the amount of greenhouse gases produced.
Today’s CO2 levels have not been seen “in the history of humanity”, she said. “The last time we see 400 parts per million of CO2 was three to five million years ago, and during that time, the temperature was three to four degrees warmer” and sea levels 10-20 metres higher.
The WMO report pointed out that from 1990 to 2023, radiative forcing – the warming effect on our climate from greenhouse gases increased by 51.5 per cent. CO2 accounted for more than 80 per cent of this increase, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Annual Greenhouse Gas Index.
“As long as emissions continue, greenhouse gases will continue accumulating in the atmosphere leading to global temperature rise,” the UN agency said. “Given the extremely long life of CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature level already observed will persist for several decades even if emissions are rapidly reduced to net zero.”
Asked about whether the UN climate conference might be expected to yield tangible commitments from countries, the WMO Deputy Secretary-General noted that politicians worldwide do reference the latest scientific climate findings and forecasts in their public declarations. “So I do think they are listening, the question is to what degree will we see that manifest at COP29 in action,” she said.
Ms. Barrett noted that measures taken at a national level to transition to a “lower fossil fuel economy” were massively important to safeguard future generations.
“Even though there is a lag and temperatures will rise, we are not to be dissuaded from action,” she said, “because there will be a transformation and a downward trend in temperature in future. It all just depends on how quickly we take action and how fast we can reduce those temperatures.”
Teleprompter
press conference on the
release of our Greenhouse gas bulletin. This is a publication that we
release every year.
It reports on atmospheric concentrations of the main
long lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
You should have received all the materials under embargo.
The press release is available in all official UN languages,
and we are obviously publishing this report
ahead of the annual climate change negotiations.
Cop 29 this year to be held in
Baku, Azerbaijan.
So I have the
honour
of introducing you to CO Barrett, who is the W
deputy secretary general
who will speak to you on the main findings of the report.
And then we'll be joined also by
Oksana Tarasova,
who is a senior scientific officer.
She's the co ordinator of the bulletin, and she can provide you with more technical
explanations as to why we're seeing what we are seeing. So, without any further
ado, I'll give the floor to to Mrs Barrett. Thank you.
Thank you, Claire.
Hello, everyone.
Uh,
so we're here today to present the
20th edition of the World Meteorological Organization's
greenhouse gas bulletin.
And yet again, unfortunately,
we have to report that long lived greenhouse gases That's carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide
are all at record levels.
In
2004,
the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 377.1 parts per million
in 2023.
20 years later,
it was at 420
parts per million. According to data from WM OS Global Atmosphere Watch Network.
This is an increase of 42.9 parts per million
or 11.4%
in just 20 years.
CO2 is 100 and 51% of the pre industrial level in 1750
methane is 265%
and nitrous oxide is 100 and 25% of the pre industrial level
from 1990 to 2023 radiative. Forcing that is the warming effect on our climate
by long
lived greenhouse gases increased by 51.5%.
But these are more than just statistics.
Every part per million matters every fraction
of a degree of temperature increase matters.
It matters in terms of the speed of glacier
and ice retreat,
the acceleration of sea level rise,
ocean heat
and acidification.
It matters in terms of the number of people
who will be exposed to extreme heat every year,
the extinction of species, the impact on our ecosystems and economies.
Carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere faster
than at any time experienced during human existence.
And because of the extremely long lifetime
of CO2 in the atmosphere, we are committed to rising temperatures for many,
many years to come.
We're far off track from achieving the goals of the Paris agreement.
As you may recall,
the UN Environment Programme emissions gap issued last week made this very clear.
It said
failure to dramatically and immediately scale up climate action
would put the world on course for a temperature increase
of 2.6 to 3.1
°C above the course of this
over the course of this century.
This is frankly
too hot to handle
and the greenhouse gas bulletin
reports on concentrations of CO2 and other gases, not emissions as UN EP does.
Just about half of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere
for the other half. Just over one quarter are absorbed by the ocean and just under 30%
by land ecosystems.
There is a big year to year
variability in this because of naturally occurring phenomena
like El Nino and La Nina.
And in the course of 2023 large vegetation fire CO2 emissions
and a possible reduction in carbon absorption
by forests helped to drive the increase.
We transitioned to an El Nino event in mid 2023 during El Nino years.
Generally, greenhouse gas levels tend to rise
because drier vegetation and forest fires reduce
the efficiency of land carbon sinks.
However,
the bulletin warns that
the carbon cycle risk becomes a potentially vicious cycle
in the near future. The climate
change feedbacks could cause ecosystems to
become larger sources of greenhouses gases.
Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, whilst
the warmer ocean
temperatures might absorb
less CO2.
Consequently, more CO2 could stay in the atmosphere to accelerate global warming.
These climate feedbacks are critical
concerns to human society.
We need to increase our understanding of the
carbon cycle and carbon fluxes and sinks.
We also need to increase our understanding
of the variability of methane concentrations,
but most of all,
we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
WMO is releasing this greenhouse gas bulletin today to
inform the UN Climate Change Conference in Baku Azerbaijan
in Baku, we will also be releasing the state of the climate,
the global climate for 2024
an update
which will clearly show the impacts that record
greenhouse gas levels are having on our climate.
Thank you for your attention.
Thank you. And we'll now pass over to Oxana Tarasova,
who co ordinated this report. Thank you.
Thank you very much.
I will go through the series of
slides where you can actually get additional information
about the levels of greenhouse gases, as you can see on the table on the screen.
Concentrations of major greenhouse gases CO two methane in to
reach their new heights
CO two is currently at a level of 420 parts per million.
This is an increase of 51% above pre industrial levels for co
2
165% above pre industrial level for methane and
25% above pre industrial level for N 20.
Can we go to the next slide, please?
So if you look at the
dynamics of the changes of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,
you can see that in 2023 it is an increase of 2.3 ppm parts per million relative to 2022
and as I mentioned, 51% increase above pre industrial time.
The main sources of CO two in the atmosphere
are emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production,
and as deputy secretary general mentioned,
about 23% of emissions are taken up by the ocean
and about 30% are taken up by the terrestrial biosphere.
The difference between the anthropogenic Commission and natural carbon cycle
is that we have very large fluxes which are related to the biosphere, which is
emitting co two through respiration in absorbing CO two through the pho
synthetic activities,
while the human activities are only emitting and not absorbing anything.
Next slide, please.
Uh 2023 was already the 12th year in in our long record
where we have a consecutive year of increase above two parts per million.
We also take a look at what happened within a year.
So we did the analysis of changes from 1st January 2023 to 31st December 2023
and we've seen the impact of El Nino,
so the increase within a year was 2.8 parts per million
and on the lower plot, you can see that there is a lot of geographical variability and
all the reddish spots. They
correspond to the larger increase.
The fossil fuel emissions were about 10 p.m.
of carbon,
which is a significant increase in comparison with 1960.
And also we had large contributions from Canadian
wildfires,
which are probably one of the worst wildfire seasons for the North America,
producing 0.6 PM
of carbon just within this year. Next slide, please.
Methane concentration has also increased.
It is an 11 P PB increase from 2022 to 2023.
That's 165% above pre industrial,
and it's about 8% increase within the last 20 years.
The main sources are 60% anthropogenic.
What is waste management?
Agriculture, fossil fuel and about 40% are natural,
and those natural emissions of methane are sensitive to climate change.
So when it becomes warmer or wetter,
the tropical wetlands have a positive response to those es.
Though the mitigation actions on methane will be pretty efficient
because its lifetime is about 10 years next slide,
please.
Nitrous oxide is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas.
It increased by 1.1 parts per billion
from 2022 to 2023 and its 25% increase since pre industrial.
If we take a look at the last 20 years, it's a 5% increase.
Given long life time in the atmosphere of 121 years,
we need to keep an eye on nitrous oxide and it also when it gets to the stratosphere,
it is very dangerous and destroys stratospheric
coone.
Next slide, please.
So the data which represent in the greenhouse gas pollutants are coming from the
global network of the station which perform measurements on the ground.
So it is a real people doing real measurements
in the real atmosphere.
Those measurements are performed following the common protocols and
standards which are developed by the World Meteorological Organisation.
You can see that the number of the sites
is about 146 for co 2, 153 for
methane and 112 for nitrous oxide.
As you can see on the plot, there are substantial gaps in the observing network,
which actually limits our knowledge to understand
what happens with carbon cycle and what happens with greenhouse gases.
And largely those gaps are situated
in the developing countries, like in Africa or
Southeast Asia or in South America.
Unfortunately, without understanding the carbon cycle
in those parts of the world,
we will have large uncertainty with the projection of what
happens with the concentrations of the main greenhouse gases.
Thank you very much.
Thank you,
Oana, for the
scientific, uh, background so that
our colleagues can understand, Uh,
just exactly what goes into these estimates.
I just wanted to make maybe one small point. And that is, as you see in
xana slides,
Uh, some of the variations are going up or down, depending on natural variations.
But the one thing that is constant is that humans are always up.
The contributions from greenhouse gas emissions are always up.
So with that, I'll turn it back to you. Claire,
thank you very much.
OK, so we give priority to the
question in the rumour.
Just introduce yourself. Thank you.
Good
morning, Robin. Millard from
So this is coming ahead of cop 29.
And you seem to be speaking with a lot of urgency about what needs to happen.
But do you get the sense that the people who are
negotiating on behalf of states at cop
29 really truly understand the level of urgency
that you're trying to get across?
What is it that you want to see from them at
Cop 29?
Uh, well, it's, uh it's clear that, uh, the UN secretary general has, uh,
certainly placed a kind of bright spotlight on
scientific findings like these
that, uh,
you know, are very useful to setting political ambition, right?
We certainly believe from a WMO perspective
that the science that we provide
provides essential underpinning for the understanding.
Now, it's up to,
uh, the countries themselves to, uh,
use this information to drive their climate actions.
Personally, I see, uh, a lot of attention to science in, uh,
statements that are being made by politicians worldwide.
So I do think they are listening.
Uh, the question is, you know,
to what degree will we see that manifest at Cop 29 in action
and
online? We have a question from the Spanish News agency
Antonio Broto.
Uh, thank you. Good morning. Uh, so, uh, I have a technical question.
maybe because there is a detail in the report that caught my attention.
Uh, usually, this is compared with the pre
industrial levels. And, uh, this time it says that pre industrial levels means
1750 year
in previous reports is 1850. Uh, is there any change in the in the in the way that
this is compared or or or or
or this is normal? Thank you.
Thank you very much. Um,
the 1750 is the pre industrial levels, and I think that we use the same number in the
previous report.
This number is recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.
So it's always relative to 1750
just to clarify the 1850 we use quite
often for the temperature records because that's when
the reliable observations began.
So the state of the climate update,
which will be producing in a couple of years' time, that will be using 1818, 50.
But for greenhouse gases, it's always 1750.
Do you have a follow up?
Thank you for the clarification, Claire.
Uh, and I have another question, if I may, uh is just
if there is all these, all these numbers are from last year.
Do you have any, uh, interim, uh, calculations for the
this year on the, uh, concentrations of, uh, of, uh, greenhouse gases? Uh,
we are, uh, under El Nino this year.
Uh, and maybe maybe this can also accelerate the concentrations. Uh,
what numbers do you have so far?
Um, we do not produce the global average number for this year, Uh,
particularly the interim,
because, uh, we need to produce the number with a with a very,
very small uncertainty.
So if you look at the levels of uncertainty,
it's it's 420 with uncertainty of 0.1 which
requires a lot of attention to quality assurance
and quality control of individual data sets.
There are some individual
data sets, for example, from mono
law,
which
can show continues increase in concentration and from the other stations.
But we are not producing the global average. So
but all the stations show the continued increase in this year
in 24.
Do you want to elaborate a little bit on El Nino?
Yeah. In the in the cases of in the cases of El Nino, it's
It's a phenomenon which actually does impact the
uptake of Co two by the terrestrial biosphere because
during El Nino you have a very dry conditions,
uh, which suppress the photosynthetic activities.
And that's a reason why actually, in the bulletin we looked not only at the
number which has increased in 23 relative to 22
but also we looked at what happened within the year
and then if you look what happened within the year, the increase
within a year is larger than just 23 versus 22
so the increase within the year is 2.8
and that is an impact of the biomass
burning. Very strong episodes of biomass burning in Canada
There were also
are substantial burning in Europe, for example in Greece
and there is a contribution of the burning in
bushfires in Australia,
though if you look at the whole burning season
of 2023 up to February 2024 that's not the largest burning season. But the
emissions from Canadian fires were
absolutely dramatic in 23 so we see it closer to the end of the year
and
on climate feedbacks.
The report seems to
raise a level of level of alarm about those if if the permafrost
starts thawing out. What are we in for?
If that happens, what are we What are we facing there?
there is a lot of, uh, biomass, which is stored in permafrost.
And if it starts melting, it will be very difficult to control.
Uh, we have not seen the signs of the dramatic failure in the permafrost.
we've seen
inter
annual variability, so in some years, it it melts a little bit
stronger. But what we've seen is that
there is an impact of
a linear LA nino
on the levels of methane.
When we have a lot of, uh during La Nino,
we have a lot of precipitation which actually drives
the increased emissions from the from the activities
which are related to the water emissions,
for example, tropical wetlands.
Or if you have the agriculture, for example rice speed,
they would be acting exactly the same way
we did Look at the state of the permafrost and if emissions are coming and
we did not, we did not get that tipping point yet,
but it may come. I mean, if the temperature is increasing as it is increasing
in the polar latitudes,
the increase is much larger than the global average temperature increase.
We may see the failure in those points.
Um, the same as with what we call was also potential climate feedback.
The same may happen with the with the forest,
because as a part of the carbon cycle, you have the burning. Then you have the
great growth of the forest, which takes up CO
two. But what may happen is that
the forest which was there, which grew there 50 years ago,
uh, if it burns now, it actually meets a completely different temperature.
So not the same type of the trees are growing in the same in the part of the forest.
We've seen it in Amazon, where
the biomass burning destroyed the tropical forest, the rain forest,
and then the recovery happens with a different species.
So maybe just as a follow on point to that, um,
you know, we've, uh we've been kind of measuring these, uh,
fluxes in greenhouse gases pretty steadily since, uh,
the 19 fifties, at least in terms of, uh, the network,
the network of observing stations that we have,
uh, and that has in general, been
a key indicator in kind of identifying climate
change and that the changes that we anticipate
but all of these are need to be considered
in the context of the manifestations of climate change.
So, yes, we may not be seeing
a major change in the release of methane say from permafrost,
but we are certainly seeing the manifestations
of, uh, impacts to society from the melting of permafrost.
I, uh, have spent some time
in the Arctic and see just directly
how, um, many of these lands that are basically wetlands,
um, are, uh, just being decimated by melting of permafrost
and and the impacts to infrastructure
essential infrastructure like roads and buildings.
So, you know, these gases may seem somewhat ethereal,
but they are connected to very,
very real impacts that we're seeing on the ground from climate change.
And the report says that temperature rises are now locked in
for years to come.
I just wondered what the what the time frame might
be on that we talking the next few years.
We talking decades. Are we talking
much longer than that?
I will. I will try to put it in a historic perspective.
A couple of bulletins ago, we actually put the
the number on Where
did we see these levels of CO2 in the history of humanity?
And actually, we have not seen these levels of CO2 in the history of humanity.
Last time we've seen
400 parts per million of CO two in the atmosphere was 3 to 5 million years ago,
and during that time
the temperature was 3 to 4 degrees warmer and the sea level was 10 to 20 years higher.
The problem of CO two is that it is a very long lived greenhouse gas,
so
it stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years.
And even if you stop emissions right now,
it will drive climate change towards the equilibrium.
So we are talking about a very long time perspective when it comes to CO
two.
That's why we are also promoting the fast actions on
methane because it's much short lived in the atmosphere.
And if you take actions on methane together with the actions on CO
two,
then you can kind of level of the warming as it comes.
Yeah, and I'll maybe I'll just add that the reason you see such variation,
even in the projections of what temperature rise might,
uh, be in our future.
It's because it is very much linked to the actions that countries take now
And, uh, the rapid, uh,
the ability to make a rapid transition to, uh, um a low fossil fuel economy.
Uh,
and even though there, you know, is a lag and temperatures will rise.
Uh,
we are not to be dissuaded from action because there
will be a transformation and a downward trend in temperature
in the future.
And it all just depends on how quick we take
action and how fast we can reduce those temperatures.
Thank you. Do we have any more questions online? Can't see any.
Well, thank you very much indeed.
For your attention, I know it's a busy schedule today.
You've got lots of competing, competing things,
but thank you very much and thank you to un TV for
hosting this.
If there are any follow up interview requests, please just let us know.
Thanks and have a good day