UN Geneva - Multimedia Newsroom : UNOG-NEWS El Nino Update

"World should prepare for El Nino development, associated with increased heat and drought", says WMO

The El Niño weather pattern is likely to develop later this year and could contribute to rising global temperatures, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Wednesday at a news briefing at the United Nations in Geneva.

This would have the opposite impacts on weather and climate patterns in many regions of the world than the three-year period of La Niña that just ended and which often lowers global temperatures.

“The next few months from May to July, we have a 60% chance to enter into an El Niño phase. This likelihood will increase to 70% if we look at the period from July to August and even to 80% if we go past August. But of course, beyond, we can't say much,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of WMO’s regional climate prediction services division. “Of course, this will change the weather and climate pattern worldwide.”

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes usually last nine to 12 months.

“The warmest year was 2016, according to our report. So, we are expecting in the coming two years to have a serious increase in the global temperature,” reported Mr. Okia.

According to WMO’s State of the Global Climate reports, 2016 is the warmest year on record because of the “double whammy” of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming from greenhouse gases.

“We just had the eight warmest years on record and three of those were La Niña years. So, this just gives you an indication of the climate context we're in,” said Clare Nullis, WMO’s spokesperson, quoting WMO’s Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

According to WMO’s Professor Taalas, the world should prepare for the development of El Niño, which is often associated with increased heat, drought or rainfall in different parts of the world. It might bring relief from the drought in the Horn of Africa and other La Niña- related impacts but could also trigger more extreme weather and climate events.

“The state of the ocean is the warmest and we are currently in the so-called neutral phase of the El Niño oscillation whereby basically we left the state of the La Niña, and we are moving toward a different state,” said WMO’s Wilfran Moufouma Okia.

El Niño and La Niña are major – but not the only - drivers of the Earth’s climate system.

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