The United Nations Office at Geneva
Multimedia Newsroom
STORYLINE
UN agency warns of policy-induced global recession worse than 2007 financial crisis
The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on Monday urged advanced economies to change course in their monetary and fiscal policies to avert a global recession worse than the global financial crisis of 2007 to 2009.
Excessive monetary tightening and inadequate financial support threatens to leave developing countries exposed to cascading crises of debt, health, and climate, UNCTAD warned in its annual report on trade and development.
“We are in a world of cascading and interconnected crises: climate change, COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine,” said Rebeca Grynspan, UNCTAD Secretary-General at a press conference in Geneva. “As the Secretary-General of the UN said, we are in a perfect storm. It is a difficult moment, no doubt, for all of us, but also for policymakers, because choices matter.”
Relying on higher interest rates to bring down prices without generating a recession is an imprudent gamble, the UNCTAD report warned. Central banks’ decisions to increase rates impact emerging economies with high levels of private and public debt, it also noted. Fiscal tightening in developed economies, combined with the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have already turned a global slowdown into a downturn.
“The synchronized slowdown is hitting all regions but is ringing alarm bells for developing countries. Our calculations show that the average growth rate in developing countries will drop below three per cent, as it did in the last decade of the 1980s,” she said.
Alarming levels of debt distress and under-investment
In addition, “some 90 developing countries have seen their currencies weaken against the dollar this year. And over a third of them have seen that by more than a ten per cent devaluation.”
UNCTAD expects the world economy to grow 2.5 per cent in 2022, and to decelerate further to 2.2 per cent in 2023. That will leave real GDP still below its pre-pandemic trend and generate a cumulative shortfall of more than $17 trillion, close to 20 per cent of the world’s income. This is insufficient for sustainable development, UNCTAD insisted, further squeezing public and private finances and damaging employment prospects.
Sustainable recommendations
UNCTAD urged a course correction in favour of policy measures that directly target price spikes in energy, food, and other vital sectors.
“We need to prioritize progress on a multilateral legal framework for handling debt restructuring, including all official and private creditors. And we also recommend a program of reforms in developing economies to boost productive investment and constrain capital moving to exploit tax loopholes,” added Ms. Grynspan.
Echoing that message, Richard Kozul-Wright, head of the team in charge of the report insisted that the global economy “is not yet in a recession. It's heading towards one and there are downside risks that could push it into one, depending on how policymakers, particularly in the advanced economies, respond to the current situation. So, I think it’s really (worth) watching what policymakers are going to do over the course of the next four to six months.”
UNCTAD provides economic and trade analysis, facilitates consensus-building and offers technical assistance to help developing countries use trade, investment, finance and technology for inclusive and sustainable development.
ends
TRT: 2’36”
SOURCE: UNTV CH
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH / NATS
ASPECT RATIO: 16:9
DATELINE: 03 Oct. 2022
HYBRID PRESS BRIEFING
GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
SHOTLIST
- Medium shot, UN Geneva flag alley.
- Wide shot, press room with panel of speakers.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) UNCTAD Secretary-General, Rebeca Grynspan: “We are in a world of cascading and interconnected crises: climate change, COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. As the Secretary-General of the UN has said, we are in a perfect storm. It is a difficult moment, no doubt, for all of us, but also for policymakers, because choices matter.”
- Medium shot, cameras, and journalist.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) UNCTAD Secretary-General, Rebeca Grynspan: “The synchronized slowdown is hitting all regions but is ringing alarm bells for developing countries. Our calculations show that the average growth rate in developing countries will drop below three per cent, as it did in the last decade of the 1980s.”
- Close up shot, camera screen showing speakers.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) UNCTAD Secretary-General, Rebeca Grynspan: “Some 90 developing countries have seen their currencies weaken against the dollar this year; 90 developing countries. And over a third of them have seen that by more than a ten per cent devaluation.”
- Medium shot, journalists taking notes.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) UNCTAD Secretary-General, Rebeca Grynspan: “We need to prioritize progress on a multilateral legal framework for handling debt restructuring, including all official and private creditors, and we also recommend a program of reforms in developing economies to boost productive investment and constrain capital moving to exploit tax loopholes.”
- Medium shot, journalists taking notes.
- SOUNDBITE (ENGLISH) Director, Division on Globalization and Development Strategies, UNCTAD, Richard Kozul-Wright: “The global economy is not yet in a recession. It's heading towards one and there are downside risks that could push it into one, depending on how policymakers, particularly in the advanced economies, respond to the current situation. So, I think it’s really (worth) watching what policymakers are going to do over the course of the next four to six months.”
- Medium shot, speaker speaking.
- Medium shot, staff monitoring.
- Close-up shot, hands of journalist typing.
Similar Stories
1
1
1
Edited News | OHCHR , UNOG
The appointment on Thursday of Karla Quintana as head of the Independent Institution on Missing Persons in the Syrian Arab Republic is a key development after nearly a year and a half of work by the UN Human Rights Office supporting the institution’s launch.
1
1
1
Edited News | IOM , UNICEF , UNRWA , WHO
The head of the UN migration agency stressed on Friday that Syria is in no position to take back millions of Syrians following the fall of the Assad regime, while there is an urgent need to “re-evaluate” sanctions impacting the war-ravaged country.
1
1
1
Press Conferences | OHCHR , UNHCR , WHO , UNICEF , UNRWA , OHCHR
Alessandra Vellucci, Director of the United Nations Information Service in Geneva, chaired a hybrid briefing, which was attended by the Director-General of the International Organization for Migration, representatives and spokespersons of the World Health Organization, the United Nations Human Rights, the United Nations Children’s Fund, United Nations Relief and Works Agency, the United Nations Refugee Agency, and the International Labour Organization.
1
1
1
Press Conferences | IOM
Amy Pope, IOM Director General, briefs the Geneva press corps on her recent mission to Syria.
1
1
1
Edited News | IIIM , UNHCR
Syria: ‘Key priority’ is to preserve evidence of crimes – UN investigators
In Syria, new access to evidence of horrific human rights violations means that accountability may be closer than ever – if only proof can be preserved, a top UN investigator said on Tuesday.
1
1
1
Press Conferences | FAO , UNHCR , WHO , WOAH
Alessandra Vellucci, Director of the United Nations Information Service in Geneva, chaired a hybrid briefing, which was attended by the Head of the International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism Investigating Serious Crimes in Syria, representatives and spokespersons of the United Nations Refugee Agency, the World Health Organization, the World Organization for Animal Health, the Food and Agriculture Organization, and the World Meteorological Organization.
1
1
1
Press Conferences | IIIM
Robert Petit, Head of IIIM: opportunities and challenges for justice in Syria in the wake of current events.
1
1
1
Edited News | OSE , ICRC , UNHCR
Syria: UN and partners urge action to preserve evidence of prison atrocities, stabilize country
Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria five days ago, hundreds of people have rushed to Saydnaya prison, desperate to find loved ones. Disturbing images from the prison and other detention centers have since surfaced, exposing the “unimaginable barbarity Syrians have endured for years,” said Jenifer Fenton, spokesperson for the UN special envoy for Syria, on Friday.
1
1
1
Press Conferences | OSE , UNHCR , ICRC , UNRWA , HRC , ILO , WHO
Rolando Gómez, Chief of the Press and External Relations Section of the United Nations Information Service in Geneva, chaired a hybrid briefing, which was attended by the representatives and spokespersons of the Office of the Special Envoy for Syria, the United Nations Refugee Agency, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, the International Labour Organization, the World Health Organization, the Human Rights Council, and the International Committee of the Red Cross.
1
1
2
Edited News | UNRWA
Gaza: “Sickening normalisation” of suffering, amid attacks on people and aid convoys
Ongoing military operations by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) in Gaza continue to devastate Palestinian children and families, with mounting casualties and a critical lack of humanitarian aid for the desperate population.
“Local media reporting here that last night, 30 people were killed in this area in strikes” said a senior emergency officer with the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), Louise Wateridge, speaking to reporters in Geneva from central Gaza.
2
1
2
Press Conferences , Edited News | OHCHR
Rights experts call for end to impunity for Israel’s violations of international law
Four independent human rights experts have jointly called for the international community to sanction Israel’s conduct of hostilities in the Occupied Palestinian Territory as well as in the wider Middle East region - including in Syria, Lebanon and Iran. They also called for the restoration of trust in the international justice system through the abandonment of “extreme interpretations” and “double standards” in the application of the universal norms regulating the conduct of war.
1
1
1
Edited News | OCHA , UNHCR
Syria: needs continue to grow amid highly uncertain situation, say aid teams
The historic power shift in Syria and the still volatile situation two days after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime have increased humanitarian needs in a country where nearly 17 million people, including millions of internally displaced, already depended on humanitarian aid before the recent events, UN aid teams said on Tuesday.