UN GENEVA PRESS BRIEFING

22 October 2024

Ukraine's demographic crisis exacerbated by the war

Florence Bauer, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) Regional Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, stated that even before the escalation of the war, Ukraine had been facing significant demographic challenges. The country already had one of Europe’s lowest birth rates, large numbers of people had left the country to look for opportunities elsewhere, the population was getting older, and total population numbers was declining. Russia’s full-scale invasion starting in 2022 made the situation worse: the birth rate had plummeted to one child per woman, the lowest fertility rate in Europe. At the same time, millions of people had been displaced, internally within the country and some 6.7 million externally as refugees. A significant number of people had died as a direct result of the war. Overall, Ukraine’s population had declined by over ten million since the beginning of the war in 2014 - a huge loss in human capital which was urgently needed for recovery and building Ukraine’s future.

With UNFPA support, the Government of Ukraine had developed a national demographic strategy to address these challenges. The strategy took into account experiences from other countries in the region that had narrowly focused on trying to raise birthrates to address their demographic challenges and had largely failed. Ukraine’s demographic strategy focused on building human capital and adopted a comprehensive approach. It recognized that solutions needed to address broader socio-economic factors, including access to caregiving, health, education, and creating opportunities for young people and families. Successful examples from countries like Sweden showed that inclusive policies promoting gender equality, parental leave for fathers, and family-friendly work arrangements were key to creating environments where people felt confident to have the number of children they wanted. Ms. Bauer stressed that Ukraine’s path to demographic sustainability would require comprehensive approaches that focused on gender inclusivity, overcoming stereotypes, and fostering economic opportunities for all citizens. A lot hinged on whether peace would return to Ukraine, but much could be done to already build the foundations for the country’s demographic recovery.

Rolando Gómez, for UN Information Service, said that the previous day UN Assistant Secretary-General Miroslav Jenča had addressed the Security Council on the situation in Ukraine. In his remarks, Mr. Jenča stressed that Russia’s relentless, systematic attacks had continued to bring immense suffering to the people of Ukraine, and that civilians and civilian infrastructure ought to be protected.

Responding to questions, Ms. Bauer specified that since the full-scale invasion, the birthrates in Ukraine had fallen to only one child per woman, and there were now over 6.7 million Ukrainian refugees. She spoke of deserted villages or areas inhabited only by the elderly. The projections of the population loss of ten million since the beginning of the war in 2014 came from the Government of Ukraine, explained Ms. Bauer. A lot more could be done with the Ukrainian refugees in neighbouring countries, she said, so that this investment in human capital would eventually benefit Ukraine.

Socio-economic situation in Gaza

Chitose Noguchi, Deputy Special Representative of the United Nations Development Programme’s Programme of Assistance to the Palestinian People, speaking from Gaza, said that one year into a full-scale war in Gaza, the new assessment launched today with the Economic Commission for Southwest Asia (ESCWA) showed that a parallel, and perhaps less noticed development emergency was looming. Economic losses were staggering; by the end of 2024, the GDP of the State of Palestine would have dropped from pre-war estimate of USD 20.2 billion to USD 13.1 billion, the equivalent of over 35 per cent reduction. Unemployment was skyrocketing and one in two people was jobless. In Gaza, unemployment was reaching 80 per cent, and three out of four people lived in poverty. In the State of Palestine overall, poverty was projected to rise to 74.3 per cent in 2024, up from 38.8 per cent at the end of 2023, affecting 4.1 million people, including 2.61 million people who were newly impoverished.

Ms. Noguchi stated that while the State of Palestine was experiencing unprecedented setback in development as measured by the Human Development Index, indicating a loss or almost 24 years of development gains, recovery was possible, with conditions. Even if humanitarian aid flowed at the rate of USD 280 million every year for ten years, simulations in this assessment showed that the aid alone could not put the Palestinian economy on a restorative track to restore pre-war levels and align with Palestinian development goals. Investments in development-enabling multi-sectoral recovery interventions - at least in an equal amount or more annually had to be secured. Recovery had to be enabled to eventually support reconstruction of destroyed capital and restoration of lost livelihoods. Restrictions that were currently stifling the economy had to be lifted, such as movement restrictions on Palestinian workers and the withholding of clearance revenues due to the Palestinian Authority, which could contribute to improving the business climate allowing the private sector to contribute to recovery and reconstruction. The Arab States region faced rising levels of wars and crises:

home to less than six per cent of the world’s population, the region witnessed 31 per cent of global conflicts and originated 10 per cent of the world’s refugees. The call for simultaneous attention and investment in the dual tacks of immediate humanitarian aid and development-focused early recovery applied to many other contexts in the Arab region today, concluded Ms. Noguchi.

More details on the UNDP-ESCWA assessment are available here.

Answering questions from the media, Ms. Noguchi explained that different UN agencies collaborated and shared data; the assessment launched today was looking at the multidimensional poverty index and the human development index, which complemented other reports recently released by other UN agencies. She said that the multidimensional poverty index measured the per centage of households in a country deprived along three dimensions –monetary poverty, education, and basic infrastructure services – to capture a more complete picture of poverty. In terms of the recovery, UNDP estimated that with the investments of USD 280 million per year, Gaza could return to the pre-war level of development in about a decade, but that heavily depended on several other factors as well. The report detailed different scenarios.

Tarik Jašarević, for the World Health Organization (WHO), added that the WHO had been repeating for the past year that the right to health was a basic human right, and people in Gaza had seen that right severely restricted, with only half of hospitals in Gaza partially functioning. An estimated 1,000 medical workers in Gaza had been killed, according to the local Ministry of Health.

Clinical management during current Marburg outbreak in Rwanda

Dr. Janet Diaz, World Health Organization (WHO) Lead on Clinical Management, said that she had been part of a surge team that had gone to Kigali, Rwanda, few days after the Marburg outbreak’s declaration; she had also accompanied Dr. Tedros during his visit over the previous weekend. As of 21 October, there were a total of 61 cases and 15 deaths, with one patient recovering. Two of the patients who had been on intubation for more than ten days had been extubated. Most cases were among health workers. No deaths or cases had been reported in the past seven days. Ms. Diaz explained that a pathway for early recognition of cases had been developed, along with the development of treatment centres, critical care, and mental care services. Soon after the outbreak, the Ministry of Health had established a central treatment centre, along with two centres looking into suspected cases, where patients could be isolated and rapidly tested. The main treatment centre could treat up to 50 patients and was adequately staffed, explained Dr. Diaz. A survival programme was also in place.

Dr. Diaz further spoke of the successful collaboration between the WHO and the local doctors. She highlighted the optimization of care, including oxygen and non-invasive therapies; in Kigali, invasive mechanical ventilation had been used for two patients, who were now recovering. Another hallmark event had been a clinical trial on therapeutics. An earlier developed protocol had been rapidly deployed to Rwanda and it had then been swiftly approved by Rwandan health authorities. Dr. Diaz explained that the relatively low case-fatality ratio of 24 per cent could be attributed to strong collaboration, efficacious treatments, and optimized care. This mortality rate could be driven further down if these steps continued, she stressed.

Dr. Tedros’s remarks from Kigali on 20 October were available here.

Announcements

Alejandro Laguna, for the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), stated that, ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, UNEP was about to launch its 15^th Emissions Gap Report on 24 October. The Report would provide an overview of the gap between global emissions and where they would need to be if we wanted to keep the global warming limited to 1.5 degrees. An embargoed technical briefing online would be held on 23 October.

Clare Nullis, for the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), added that the WMO would be releasing its Greenhouse Gas Bulletin on 28 October. This bulletin focused on greenhouses which remained in the atmosphere after the rest was absorbed by the oceans, and it complemented the UNEP report.

Tommaso Della Longa, for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), informed that the Red Cross statutory meetings had commenced at the CICG and Varembé Conference Centre today and would continue till 31 October. Today, youth meetings were on the agenda, to be followed by the IFRC Assembly, which would discuss, among other things, the new health policy and youth engagement. The following week, the 34^th International Conference would also include the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and governments. All sessions were open to the media, and interview requests could be facilitated.

Rolando Gómez, for the United Nations Information Service (UNIS), said that the UN Secretary-General had participated at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa. In his remarks, the Secretary-General expressed his hope that Africa would be given a permanent seat at the UN Security Council.

He reminded that today at 2:30 pm, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) would present its Review of Maritime Transport 2024: Navigating maritime chokepoints, under embargo till 5:30 pm. UNCTAD speakers would be Shamika Sirimanne, Director of Technology and Logistics, and Jan Hoffmann, Head of the Trade Logistics Branch.

On 29 October at 12 noon, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) would present its Trade and Development Report 2024: Rethinking Development in the Age of Discontent, embargoed until 2:30 pm that day. Speakers would be Rebeca Grynspan, UN Trade and Development Secretary General, and Anastasia Nesvetailova, UNCTAD’s Head of Macroeconomic and Development Policies Branch, Division on Globalization and Development Strategies.

The Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women would hold on 25 October, at 10 am, an informal public meeting with States parties and launch the general recommendation 40, on the equal and inclusive representation of women in decision-making systems. CEDAW would then close its 89^th session that afternoon and issue its concluding observations on the reports of the eight countries reviewed during this session: Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Saudia Arabia, New Zealand, Chile, Canada, Japan, Cuba, and Benin.

The Human Rights Committee was concluding this morning the review of the report of Greece, after which it would begin consideration of the report of France.

Finally, Mr. Gómez reminded that 24 October would be the United Nations Day, and the Secretary-General’s message had been circulated.

ANNOUNCEMENTS

- UNEP - Alejandro Laguna: UNEP’s 2024 Emissions Gap Report, to be launched on Thursday

- IFRC - Tommaso Della Longa: Red Cross Red Crescent Statutory Meetings starts today. Media opportunities.

TOPICS

- UNDP - Chitose Noguchi, Deputy Special Representative, UNDP Programme of Assistance to the Palestinian People (From Gaza): Third Socio-Economic Assessment of the Impacts of the Gaza War on the State of Palestine

- UNFPA - Florence Bauer, UNFPA Regional Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia: Ukraine's demographic crisis exacerbated by the war

- WHO - Tarik Jašarević (PR) with Dr Janet Diaz, WHO Lead on Clinical Management: Clinical Management during current Marburg outbreak in Rwanda